Crozet Real Estate Market Mid-2023 Update – Fewer homes listed & sold, resale prices down

Sunrise, clouds, fence and round hay bales

Home sales in Crozet + Brownsville are down, year over year, prices for resale homes are down, new construction prices are up, and days on market are up a little bit.

The Crozet real estate market is stable. (despite being remarkably unaffordable for so many)

I wrote an overview of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate market at RealCentralVA, and this one is a bit different than that one — this is focused on Crozet + Brownsville Elementary school districts, and I’m looking at new construction and resale transactions.

Questions? Please ask.

434-242-7140 | [email protected]

A few data points for Crozet + Brownsville

  • From 1 January 2023 to 30 June 2023
    • 133 (down) homes sold. Average Days on Market: 29 (up). Median: 4. Average sales price: $632,011
    • 50 (down) new construction sold – Average price: $720,826 (up)
    • 83 (down) resale homes sold – Average price: $578,508 (down)
    • 83 single family homes sold and 50 attached homes sold
    • 25 homes sold under $400K; 21 of those had 3 or more bedrooms
    • Average age of home sold in 2023: 15 years
    • 128 homes were listed.

  • From 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022
    • 151 homes sold. Average Days on Market: 18. Median: 4. Average sales price: $649,280
    • 61 new construction sold – Average price: $705,529
    • 90 resale homes sold – Average price: $611,156
    • 113 single family homes sold and 38 attached homes sold
    • 31 homes sold under $400K; 25 of those had 3 or more bedrooms
    • 144 homes were listed.

  • Will home prices in Crozet come down?
    • Maybe. But if you are able to buy now, and you have life/job security, what might be the opportunity cost of waiting? As I tell my clients, I can’t answer that. I know that houses have appreciated, even as mortgage rates have increased substantially.
  • Will interest rates come down or go up?
    • Yes.

Specific questions that only buyers/sellers can ask and answer (with professional guidance?)

There’s really only one question, usually — Should I wait to buy or sell?


# of homes sold in 1st half of 2023; some of the neighborhoods

attached + detached homes. neighborhoods with more than 1 sale.

Neighborhood# of homes soldAverage PriceAvg Sq Ft – above grade
Bargamin Park3$446,000.002,261
Chesterfield2$882,500.002,939
Glenbrook at Foothill10$706,600.802485
Glenbrook at Parkside10$485,156.801996
Grayrock2$612,500.002756
Highlands6$365,630.001878
Laurel Hill2$425,000.001468
Old Trail26$748,342.892523
Orchard Acres2$248,750.001154
Pleasant Green11$452,279.552070
Sparrow Hill2$797,500.002705
Stonegate2$507,500.002759
Western Ridge4$656,875.002769
Westhall4$413,000.001702
Westlake at Foothill4$936,666.673080
Wickham Pond6$505,583.332260
Not in neighborhood16$690,937.502211

I wrote this last year, and it mostly holds (although interest rates are a bit higher now)

The one thing I’d add to what I wrote below is that mortgage rates are causing more homeowners to stay where they are rather than move up or down, especially if they are staying in Crozet or Charlottesville/Albemarle.

One of the most common conversations I have is this:

-Prices are so high! I should sell my house.

-I agree. (knowing the next part of the short conversation)

-Where would I go?

– Nowhere; you’re going to stay where you are.


Mortgage interest rates are causing the market to shift

Looking at interest rates through this lens:*

$650K price.
20% down
3.25%
Principal + Interest payment= $2,263

Change that interest rate to 6% -> $3,118

And 5.5% -> $2,953

For a $500K at 5.5% house, P&I = $2,271

Buyers are going to necessarily pull back.

Sellers need to be mindful of buyers’ more limited budgets and set expectations appropriately. And listen to the best professional guidance they have. (here’s where I ask you to contact me with questions)


* I like Karl’s Mortgage Calculator; it’s a great iOS app too.

* note:these numbers are for just Principal and Interest; a full mortgage payment is comprised of Principal + Interest + (property) Taxes + (homeowners’) Insurance. Hence the commonly-referenced “PITI payment.” If you’re in a HOA, factor those fees in as well.

Albemarle Comp Plan Survey Results – Housing and More

Mint Springs sunrise - 3 July 2023

Since I’ve got mine, it’s ok if others don’t, apparently.

Also, respondents want to live next to parks, open space, restaurants, and retail.

The People make Government’s job harder.


Crozet, Albemarle, the US, the World, need affordable housing. I don’t know that anyone has a viable solution as of yet, but I do know that not seeing affordable housing as a need is a problem.

From a recent Charlottesville Community Engagement

(bolding is mine)

The Comprehensive Plan update is being called AC44 to reflect the target year of 2044. The first set of results are in for the first round of public input for the second phase. 

“The AC44 team reviewed community input from the first round of engagement in Phase 2, from 532 questionnaire responses, six pop-ups in each magisterial district, and approximately 130 participants in 15 community chats,” reads an email sent out this morning. 

That response rate is around 0.4 percent of the total population. 

A summary of the responses has also been sent out. Question ten sought to gauge concern about housing affordability in the future. Seventy-four respondents were very concerned, 217 were somewhat concerned, and 231 were not concerned at all.

All of the data from the full questionnaire are also available for review on the AC44 website. The vast majority of respondents live in single-family homes (432 out of 526) and own their homes (460 out of 519). 

43% of respondents – who are already homeowners – are not concerned about affordable housing.

Dig into the results; what do you think?


Edit: The first title for this post was, “I’ve Got Mine;” I’m editing it because it’s a more opinionated title than I typically publish. I’d rather the post be about the comp plan, and not my opinion, though I still wish we’d think of others more when responding to surveys.

Questions for White Hall BoS Candidates

I’ve not done this before – asking candidates questions for publication, but the 2023 White Hall Board of Supervisors election is interesting, and substantive conversations are being offered.

I asked incumbent Anne Mallek and challenger Brad Rykal the following questions; I had the post formatted and ready to go, and Brad got back to me with answers, while Ann declined.

I appreciate Brad’s willingness to engage in the dialogue in a public blog post, and hope you find value in his time and his answers.

A few questions and answers with Brad Rykal

Answer: Yes, it is possible if the County is willing to invest in its relationship with Crozet. We need to rebuild trust after the previous Master Planning process strained our connection. To start, we should carefully assess the required infrastructure investment for the Crozet Master Plan’s proposed growth. Crozet needs a realistic plan based on public data and prior commitments. By working together, we can solve any challenge. 

It is really this simple: if the County cannot afford to build the infrastructure in Crozet, the County cannot afford the growth in Crozet.

We must reconcile the Crozet Master Plan with reality. We’ve developed an unhealthy relationship with the County over the last 16 years.  If I have the privilege of serving as your new Supervisor, I will begin healing the relationship from Day 1.

I can’t.

I condemn it because it is a matter of safety. When gridlock paralyzes traffic from Old Trail to Star Hill, it endangers not only our community’s quality of life, but safety. First responders can’t reach their destinations when their routes are blocked. One of the top priorities as White Hall Supervisor is to prioritize Crozet’s transportation infrastructure needs.

Absolutely not. 

The County made a commitment long ago to safeguard the rural area, and it is essential to honor that promise. Imposing higher land use taxes would render many farms in the rural area financially unfeasible. The presence of both large and small farms contributes significantly to the appeal and vitality of White Hall as a community. It is imperative to support and nurture our agricultural economy, and I would never take actions that could put it in jeopardy.

Answer: The County’s tax collection has increased by $100M since 2019, indicating that there is no shortage of tax revenue. Therefore, the issue lies within the expense budget. This election cycle is crucial because the County will update its comprehensive plan, which will shape spending priorities for the next 20 years. 

Having worked in or alongside the government for a significant part of my adult life, including positions at Rivanna Station after the United States Army and as an executive for a defense contracting company, I know that government budgets often contain waste and bureaucratic inefficiencies. They are not in plain sight with line items that say “government waste” but hidden in bloated programs that have drifted from their original and useful purpose.  Finding these savings and redeploying them to higher priority investments doesn’t take a rocket scientist (trust me, I’m married to one).  

As elected leaders, the Board of Supervisors should diligently scrutinize the budget and inquire about its components. I will advocate for critical infrastructure projects to be a priority in Crozet by being a strong fiscal voice in Board meetings.

Answer: I support any reasonable, transparent, and data-driven budget approaches to ensure we are funding the County’s highest priority capital projects.

Answer: While Crozet serves as a bedroom community for Charlottesville, where many residents commute by car to work (I even know of bike enthusiast realtors that get into their car to drive to Charlottesville for work!), we can still improve connectivity within Crozet itself and increase support for public transit. 

To achieve this, I will advocate for a detailed capital budget that allocates funding for the catalyst projects outlined in the Crozet Master Plan (as displayed on page 47 of the document). This includes High Priority sidewalks, Phase 1 of the Three Notched Trail, and the Afton Express Stop for public transit.  As I said earlier, if the County cannot afford these capital projects, we will need to revisit the Crozet Master Plan and bring its growth and infrastructure goals into alignment.

Additionally, I will implement sensible policies to protect our environment. Currently, the County’s Water Protection Ordinance contains a problematic loophole that incentivizes developers to bury natural streams underground—an illogical approach. Stream preservation and buffers are crucial for clean drinking water, safe corridors for wildlife, and carbon sequestration. Our current Board of Supervisors is well aware of this issue but has failed to address the issue.

We need a leader who fearlessly confronts reality. If we can secure the necessary infrastructure, let’s proceed. If not, we should responsibly adjust the plans.

My question (if limited on time/energy, please focus on the above questions)

  • How does Albemarle County (and specifically Crozet) get money to fund infrastructure? What’s the process and is there a typical timeline? 

Answer: The first step in acquiring funding for infrastructure projects in Albemarle County, particularly in Crozet, is to elect bold leaders to the Board of Supervisors. These leaders must identify and prioritize critical infrastructure projects that can be funded by our local Capital Improvement budget or are likely to receive state funding within a reasonable timeframe. The next step is to balance the budget without further increasing citizen’s tax burden. During this process, there will be tough tradeoffs, as some infrastructure projects and County operating expenses hold greater significance than others. This is the fundamental challenge facing our elected leaders. No magic wand is required; rather, it is a matter of prioritizing what is right over what is expedient.

Question: What areas around Crozet do you propose to expand the Growth Area into? 

Answer: I have not seen any evidence that we need to expand the Growth Area around Crozet or elsewhere in the County. I know there is a prevailing sense that our housing demand is greater than our housing supply.  While that may be true in some specific areas, it simply is not the case at the County level.

How do I know? The Land Build Out analysis, which is part of the AC44 comprehensive plan update, says so. According to the report, approximately 12,600 new homes need to be constructed by 2044 to accommodate the County’s total projected population growth. But the County has already approved a housing pipeline that will satisfy the need for 12,000 of these homes. 

I am always open to new data and ideas, but at the moment, I do not see the quantitative justification for expanding the growth area.

Brad offered this as well

Jim, thank you for taking the time to compose and share these questions with me. It is clear that these questions not only occupy your mind but also resonate with many readers and residents who deserve candid and transparent answers.

Please also extend my  invitation to any of your followers to come and chat with me in person after the Crozet Parade at my designated table under the pavilion.   We are planning a light-hearted event and I have arranged some games for children with a few prizes! I will also be at Pro Re Nata Brewery on Sunday, July 2nd, from 1-3 PM for anyone interested who would like to ask me questions or  share their ideas for improving Crozet, White Hall, or Albemarle County.

Finally, I invite everyone to get more informed about my positions by following my campaign on Facebook


VPAP Update

As of June 8, Ann had $18,464 on hand and Brad had $3,384.


One comment from me – politics is hard, and local politics is more personal as the people we elect, the decisions they make, the willingness to listen and learn – all of these are tangible to us, more so in my opinion, than national politics.

I appreciate their willingness to serve and run.

Building Infrastructure in Crozet?

Jarmans Gap in 2011

Jim’s comment: please comment with questions/thoughts/corrections/clarifications. We’re in this together.

Crozet and VDOT infrastructure thoughts, from NextDoor*

Post after post after post: Everyone blames the county for the lack of infrastructure. That is patently false. I’ve lived in Crozet for almost 20yrs, I have heard the same complaints. 20yrs later…the same complaints and misdirected ire continues.

Take a peek at the Culpeper district planning.

Do you see Crozet anywhere in that list? Just the 240/250 intersection. Other than that…nothing. Why?

1) Because the 500 people complaining on ND day in and day out are not making their voices heard by state officials.

2) Most people do not understand just how difficult it is to build out infrastructure. You want sidewalks on Park Rd? Tabor St? The state, not the county, will have to negotiate with every single landowner along those roads to obtain rights of way easements, or they will have to use eminent domain. THAT is not going to be popular among of the owners along those roads.

1) The infrastructure never comes before building. So that means the county will need to deny all building permits. That will be quickly litigated and overturned as plaintiffs will point to prior approved permits and rezoning as permissible for their particular application.

2) “We have and will continue to reach out to state officials.” I disagree that actually happens. What I see are 500 posts about county meetings, CCAC meetings etc.

Can you point me to single post along the lines of “Hey Good/Deeds is hosting a townhall, lets get 500 Crozet residents down there to discuss why VDOT won’t build proper infrastructure?”

Can you point me to a single post along the lines of “Hey VDOT is hosting a meeting lets get 500 crozet residents down there to discuss why VDOT won’t build proper infrastructure?”

I’m fairly certain you can’t. I on the other hand can point to no less than 100+ posts (on Nextdoor) about county meetings, despite the fact the county has little to no authority. This is by design, it is baked into the Virginia state constitution. Just google Dillon Rule.

As my grandfather loved to say: that dog is barking up the wrong tree.

FYI: If Crozet were to incorporate, the newly formed “City of Crozet” Would obtain that legal authority to truly regulate growth and build out infrastructure. But that would require new taxes and the City of Crozet would need to levy a hefty real estate tax and provide tax relief based on income thresholds, so the tax targets those mostly responsible for the uncontrolled growth: Those living in developments. (me: what if Crozet became a town?)

However that tax proposal would be vehemently opposed by the very same people that created the situation in first place. 😉

*Note from Jim – copy/pasted from Mark McCardell’s comments with permission, and only changes made by me were to add links, and to add a ‘ here and there.

More from me: If Crozetians really want to have an effect on growth, etc in Crozet, organize and go to Board of Supervisors meetings. CCAC is about as effective as NextDoor. Go to the BoS meetings, and go again, and again, and again, and again. And again.


Continue reading “Building Infrastructure in Crozet?”

Money, Money, Money — White Hall Supervisors Race – June 13 2023

Bicycle tracks through new construction red dirt; if only we would prioritize moving humans rather than cars

I’m always curious as to who’s giving what to whom. And we can thank VPAP for tracking the money for us (if you can, donate to VPAP if you can; I give a little bit every year).

No analysis to offer here, other than to check out the candidates, and be sure to vote.

Ann Mallek’s site is here.

Brad Rykal’s site is here.

It might be just me, but the 2023 White Hall Board of Supervisors election feels somewhat consequential; we’ll see.

CCAC Meeting – 14 June 2023 – Broadband Update

Climate change-fueled haze from the Canadian fires - 8 June, 2023

We need infrastructure – not just roads, sidewalks, bike lanes, but internet as well.

From Joe Fore, CCAC Chair:

“Our main agenda item will be a discussion with the Albemarle County Broadband Accessiblity and Affordability Office about broadband internet use and needs in the Crozet area. I haven’t received any materials that they’d like us to review ahead of time, but if I do, I’ll circulate them before the meeting. We’ll also hear updates from the Crozet Trails Crew and from our Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors liaisons.

Two other Crozet-related items that I wanted to pass along:

  • In April, we heard from Tim Tolson of the Crozet Community Association about the Crozet Independence Day Celebration, which will take place on Saturday, July 1. Details about the day’s events are available here. Of course, this phenomenal community event doesn’t occur by magic; it relies on Crozetians who are willing to contribute their time and money to help make it happen. The above link includes information about how to donate and how to volunteer for a 1-hour slot to help with set-up and clean-up. I hope you’ll all consider doing both.”

Agenda and draft minutes after the break

Continue reading “CCAC Meeting – 14 June 2023 – Broadband Update”

When Do Homes Come on the Market in Crozet?

number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)

Interesting to think that we might be seeing even less inventory this year in Brownsville + Crozet school districts.

Our market is driven largely by the school calendar, whether that’s Albemarle County schools, private schools, or UVA.

It’s been an interesting 2023.

As I wrote on RealCentralVA:

It’s been a challenging year(s) for buyers in the Charlottesville area. While it’s been this way for years, the past three years have been exceptionally hard.

  • Continued low inventory
  • High prices
  • Higher interest rates than a generation of buyers have seen
  • 42% of American homeowners don’t have mortgages
  • The baby chasers are having an impact on the market

Questions? Ask me. 434-242-7140 or [email protected]


JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune
# in 2023511252727
# in 2022 (217)131027313328
* single family + attached, resale, Brownsville + Crozet, excluding new construction

What is the Crozet real estate market doing right now?

The best answer is the one I’ve said for most of my career – I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow, combined with “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure this out.” No one knows with certainty, but I think I have a reasonably educated and experienced prognostication.

number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)
number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)

How many homes will come on the market that will fit you?

In 2017, I wrote a story laying out an answer to this question for Charlottesville, and for Albemarle. The logic and rationale remains the same, but the numbers have changed.

So have prices.

In Crozet, getting to “good enough” might take longer, or shorter, than you might like.

There comes a time in every home search process (and often the home selling process) where one says “this is good enough.”

Arriving at the point of whatever you want to call it – concession, compromise, acquiescence, acceptance, or, to use a positively-connoted descriptor – satisfied – is hard.

Related posts

Questions?

Crozet Fireworks Needs Our Help

Crozet Fireworks.

1 July 2023


via email:*

It’s that time of year again – for the Crozet Independence Day Parade, Celebration, and Fireworks. It all starts with the Crozet Volunteer Fire Department (CVFD) parade at 5:00 PM at Crozet Elementary School and goes down Crozet Avenue through downtown Crozet to Claudius Crozet Park.  The celebration begins at Claudius Crozet Park after the parade, where there will be live music by local band Iam Gilliam and the FireKings. And the event culminates at 9:30 PM with a stupendous fireworks show. Additional details at: http://crozetcommunity.org

The Crozet Independence Day celebration is the work of many volunteers and we need your help for just an hour or two.  Below is the website to sign-up to help with the Crozet Independence Day Celebration (CIDC)  Saturday, July 1, between 5PM to 10PM. There are a variety of tasks and time slots. Most of the time slots are only an hour – so there’s lots of ways to help and still enjoy the event.

To volunteer, please click here 

When you sign-up it will ask for your name, email and, optionally phone number.  No one else can see your email and phone.  We promise we won’t share it.  It’s helpful for us to have it if something happens and we need to let you know about a last minute change.

We urge church groups, civic and neighborhood associations to sign-up.  Crozet Trails Crew already has volunteered to staff one spot the whole evening!  Let’s see which group can have the most volunteers!   If you’re with a civic group or non-profit, when you sign-up, put that group’s name in parenthesis after your last name. 

We also need help with monetary donations for the event, especially the fireworks.  You can mail a check payable to: Crozet Board of Trade and send it to: CBT, P.O. Box 261, Crozet, VA 22932.  Please put  “CIDC donation” on the memo line.

OR you can contribute right now, online, by clicking on this link

   Please put “CIDC donation” in the Designation box.

Donation levels are explained here

With your help, we can make this Crozet Independence Day celebration the best ever! 

Questions? Please email Tim Tolson at [email protected]

Note: There are no pets allowed in the event and we’ll provide designated smoking areas and ask that you only smoke in those areas. 

The event is sponsored by the Crozet Volunteer Fire Department, Crozet Community Association, Crozet Board of Trade, Claudius Crozet Park, Crozet Lions Club, and several other area churches and citizen volunteers.


*Minor edits for formatting and link embedding.

Oak Bluff Community Meeting – 8 June 7pm

I’ll pay someone to livetweet this meeting.

via email.

Thank you for your interest in the Oak Bluff Development.  Our team invites you to a follow up discussion regarding the project.  At the meeting, we will cover design updates and welcome additional feedback from the community.  We appreciate your comments thus far and look forward to seeing you at the meeting!

Details

Date: June 8

Time: 7 pm

Location: Brownsville Elementary Cafeteria

Notes: Please enter through the side door of the building that faces Route 250


My two cents:

We need housing. We need infrastructure.


This is a relevant story from The Atlantic, and the accompanying discussion with the author is insightful:

Kelli: You make a bold assertion in your article: “Sometimes NIMBYs have a point.” What do you mean by that?

Jerusalem: A single development can’t balance all of the concerns people have about housing. If the question is “Should we allow this block to turn into duplexes?” community members who support the idea of building more housing in general might respond, “Why here?” And that response could be informed by reasonable concerns about housing that are broader than what that single development project entails. They may have concerns about gentrification, or about open space, or about the types of housing that are currently available.

If I’m representing a city, and I’m trying to convert one hotel into homeless housing, it’s not going to respond to green-space concerns. It’s not going to be able to speak to that, or to senior housing, or to teacher housing, or anything like that. Similarly, if you’re trying to build a new condo development in an area where increasing numbers of rich young people are moving for jobs, that’s not going to respond to the needs of people who have different kinds of concerns. And because no individual developments can check every single box, many projects end up falling through.

Kelli: So what you’re saying is that when hyperlocal political players are given too much power in these development plans, the bigger picture of a municipality or state’s housing needs can get lost. And this can end up sabotaging progress in actually building the new housing that people want and need.

Jerusalem: Exactly. We live in a pretty segregated society, both by class and by race, and on a variety of other different measures. When you restrict a development discussion to a very hyperlocal level, then you can’t have necessary conversations to balance the wants of various interest groups. If you’re dealing with a very rich, white area whose residents are wedded to their exclusionary zoning, they’re always going to resist giving up their space for, for example, homeless housing. And even if these people want homeless housing to exist in general, they have no power to make that occur somewhere else. The only power they have is to exclude it from happening in their own place.

When you expand the development process beyond a very hyperlocal level, then you can actually have broad conversations about what the state needs, and not just what this one locality says they want because they happen to live there right now.

Remember the Crozet Shopping Center Murals?

Wouldn’t it be great to have more art in Crozet?

I commented the other day about the potential for a new mural in Crozet, and was reminded of the murals in the IGA/Great Valu/Crozet Market shopping center.

The day I noticed they were being painted over, I rode my bicycle through and took some pictures; they’re not great photos, and I’m hopeful that someone else took good pictures, but at least I got a couple to remember the art.

More public art makes for a happier place to live.


Related Instagram post and Facebook post.