Streetscape Update – 18 July 2014

by Jim on July 18, 2014

via email:

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Break-ins in Crozet

by Jim on July 18, 2014

I hate posting things like this. Let’s watch out for each other, Crozet.

Received Wednesday and posted on Facebook & Twitter …

I was just at the Crozet Park and spoke with an officer that had responded to a car break in that happened sometime in the parking lot there today. Back passenger window was broken out and items were taken. No other reports from The Crozet Park at this time but officer said similar occurrence today at the stores across 250 from Harris Teeter. Sounded like broken window and items in plain view taken from car ( maybe parked outside Credit Union). I tried to get a bit of info without interfering with upset victim making report. You might want to check out the details, but this might be worth an alert message to our list. Officer indicating spreading the word would be a good idea.

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CCAC Meeting – 17 July 2014 – Recap

by Jim on July 18, 2014

Highlights of last night’s meeting:

- Barnes Lumberyard on hold. Sort of.

- Fireworks were awesome. Thanks to all involved, particularly Tim Tolson.

- The old Train Depot is going to be something else. Soon. — Last year, we talked about what should become of the old Crozet Library; these are the poll results.

- The Crozet Library continues to be busy. Really busy.

As always, click through, scroll to the bottom and work your way up. Then get educated, involved, and ask questions.
All of the CCAC posts, if you want to check out the archives.
* I’ll edit this post later, but wanted to get it up early this morning. [read the rest of the story…]

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Press release after the break … they’re located on 240 between US Joiner and the Fire Station.

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CCAC Meeting this Thursday … anyone able to live-tweet it? Hashtag #CCAC0714

Agenda after the break. (bolding mine)

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For those who don’t know, I’m a real estate agent. I live in Crozet. I study the market and make a living representing buyers and sellers in Crozet the Charlottesville area. If you’re interested in a broader look at the Charlottesville area real estate market, I wrote a report on my Charlottesville real estate blog.


Comparing the first half of this year with the first half of last year in Crozet’s real estate market …

- Contracts in Crozet are down 8%.

- Prices are up … about 8%

- Home sales (closings) are down 23%

- New listings are down 10%

- New construction remains (and will for at least a decade, I’d wager) a major factor in the Crozet market.

- If you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – and that might mean underpricing the competition if you’re in a competitive segment.

- If you’re thinking about buying, do your due diligence and buy well – this sounds like trite advice, but work your way through what life will be every day of the week at that house, not just on the one day you visit.

- Even though the data and analysis here are focused on Crozet, your micro market – Western Ridge, Old Trail (the town home market here is further segmented even), Parkside Village, Laurel Hills, etc … get competent representation.

  Crozet Real estate market update - 2nd Quarter 2014

2014 has proven to be an interesting year.

Two points as you read through this -

1 – new construction in the MLS is a challenging thing. There are different categories: Detached, Attached and Condos (which we don’t have in Crozet) and Proposed Detached, Attached and condos. It’s easy to put a “proposed” listing in and that number isn’t entirely representative of the market; “proposed” listings are one of the reasons I pull numbers by hand rather than relying on the top-level reports, some of which include “proposed” listings … and “proposed” listings weren’t added to the MLS as a category until a few years ago.

For example, when looking at the top-level numbers (including new construction) for single family homes, it appears that there are about 8 months of inventory, yet when you exclude single family, that number is closer to 6 – a healthy, balanced market. (PDFs of most of the data are here)

With that convoluted explanation …

2 – For the purposes of this story, “Crozet” = Crozet Elementary + Brownsville Elementary districts.


Fewer listings could be a good thing as that tends to keep competition healthier. Generally though, we’re still in a buyer’s market.

213 – the number of new listings this year in Crozet (excluding new construction proposed listings) versus 235 last year from 1 January to 30 June.(10% decline)

245 – the number of new listings (including new construction proposed listings) – versus 292 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (16% decline)

52 (24% of the new listings in Crozet) – just in Old Trail, (excluding new) – versus 50 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

72 (29% of the new listings) – just in Old Trail and including new constructionversus 80 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

148 – number of contracts written so far this year – versus 161 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (8% fewer this year)

44 (30% of the total contracts) – number of contracts in Old Trail versus 42 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

102 – Closed sales this year versus 133 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 23% decline. (weather related, perhaps?)

27 (27%) – Closed sales in Old Trail versus 38 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 29% decline.


Right now – 12 July around 2:30pm, there are 81 homes under contract in Crozet – 47 are marked as being new construction.


As I wrote in my monthly note:

If you’re looking to make a decision, analyze your micro market. For example, the $475K – $600K single family detached market in the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary districts: There are 64 such homes under contract in Albemarle County; 38 (59%) are new construction. In Crozet, there are 22 homes in that price range under contract; 18 (82%!) are new construction.

If you’re trying to sell a home in Crozet in that price point, your primary competition is new construction and you need to prepare and price with this in mind. In contrast, in Baker Butler and Hollymead Elementary school districts (29 North), there are 46 single family homes under contract and four in the $475K – $600K range and all are resales. Micro markets are far more relevant than county-state-national market data (or zestimates).


Takeaways:

- If your house didn’t sell this year, you’re not alone; if you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – this may be hard as nationwide, between 20-30% of homeowners are still underwater or near-underwater. (localized data for underwater homes is challenging to find)

- If you are buying this year, make sure you do your due diligence (and preferably hire a knowledgeable buyers’ agent).

- Why is the Crozet market slow? I’m not sure yet; I’ll let you know in 18 months. I know this isn’t the analysis you’re looking for but my initial thoughts are that there are still underwater sellers who aren’t yet able to sell, buyers who are able to buy but don’t yet have full confidence in employment or the market and are still mistrustful of the market and we don’t yet have a big enough employer in Crozet to supply the jobs we need. That said, a lot of people are buying and selling, so while the Crozet market isn’t as robust as the Charlottesville City market, our market remains fairly strong.

Questions?

I’m always happy to answer them.

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Crozet Streetscape Update – 11 July 2014

12 July 2014

via email -

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This Weekend in Crozet – 11 July 2014

11 July 2014

The Crozet Calendar offers quite a bit this weekend. If anything’s missing, please add it yourself !

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Quick Start Tennis at Crozet Elementary

10 July 2014

via email: QuickStart Tennis of Central Virginia is building three 36-foot QuickStart Tennis courts at Crozet Elementary School. To follow the construction progress, please go here.

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Last Few Weeks on RealCrozetVA Facebook – 8 July 2014

8 July 2014

While I don’t particularly like Facebook, I recognize its value to the community and sometimes a quick post on Facebook is better than a quick blog post so as not to flood everyone’s inboxes. Also, try searching for – and finding! – a Facebook post from a few weeks, months, or years ago; go ahead, […]

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