Crozet Real Estate Conversation – 1st Quarter 2016

I love doing these. Not only do we love real estate market analysis & data, but having the opportunity to shoot at Crozet businesses.

We’ve done these at the Crozet Mudhouse, Greenhouse Coffee, Crozet Library, and this month at Pro Re Nata (PRN).

The Crozet Real Estate Conversation with David Ferrall and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

This is a quick look at the 1st Quarter 2016 real estate market report – land sales, new construction contracts, total sales in Brownsville & Crozet Elementary School Districts.

Have questions about the market? Call or email us anytime. Or stop by the Crozet Mudhouse from 9am – 11am on the 2nd & 4th Wednesdays of every month!

 

Median Home Prices in Crozet Continuing to Rise

We’ve been doing our Crozet real estate conversations for the past few months; each time we do them we tend to have some interesting data-based-conversations. This month, a friend asked me about median home prices in Crozet.

Looking at real estate data is always fun, so I pulled a bit of information from the Charlottesville MLS and came up with this (* “Crozet” for this purpose = Brownsville + Crozet Elementary school districts):

Crozet Homes' Prices and Sales Volume since 2015
Crozet Homes’ Prices and Sales Volume since 2015

 

  • Red line is the number of single family detached home sales in Albemarle County.
  • Green line is the number of single family detached home sales in Crozet.
  • Blue bars are the median sales prices for single family detached homes in Crozet.
  • Thanks to Keith for the help with the graphs.

Continue reading “Median Home Prices in Crozet Continuing to Rise”

Crozet Real Estate Conversation – January 2016

Median sales price, where are new homes selling, what neighborhoods are coming online in Crozet? We love questions!

Our experiment continues. David and I love to talk about real estate. We thought the Crozet Real Estate Conversation series would be a good place to talk about real estate and share some of our thoughts and insights about life in Crozet & the Crozet real estate market.

  • “Crozet” for these purposes is defined as “Crozet Elementary + Brownsville Elementary” 
  • 2015 Median price for Attached & Detached homes in Albemarle County: $340K  (1,471 homes).  (1,374 homes)*
  • 2015 Median price home in Crozet: $400K (285 homes sold) Median price home in Crozet in 2014: $373K (253 homes sold).
  • New construction in Crozet is up 50%(!) in 2015 over 2014.
  • Small builders are holding their own, holding 20% of the new construction market.
  • 50% of new construction in Crozet is in Old Trail.
  • 26 of sales in Crozet last year were in Old Trail (also, Old Trail is seeking a downzoning)
  • 28% of new homes sold in Crozet last year were under $400K.

Read/comment more at the facebook post.

David and/or I are at the Crozet Mudhouse on the 2nd and 4th Wednesday of every month. Please stop by to chat; we pulled (and know) a lot more real estate data and information than we shared in the video.

Ask us questions anytime!

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Conversation – January 2016”

Crozet Real Estate Conversation – 3rd Quarter 2015

The experiment continues. David Ferrall and I have launched a new effort to educate folks, and satiate our own desires to talk about real estate. We had our first conversation in July; this time we’ve been a bit more brief.

We’re going to be at a Crozet coffee shop – for the next couple months, the Crozet Mudhouse – the 2nd and 4th Wednesday of the month from 9 to 11 if you’re curious about the market and want us to buy you a cup of coffee.

2015 Assessed Values in Crozet

This is a real estate post. I’m a real estate agent by the wayQuestions? ask me … 434-242-7140. 


Pulling assessed values in Crozet is tough. Across Albemarle County, assessed values are up 2.64%; White Hall is up 2.94%.

Last year, Parkside Village had the highest percentage increase; this year, Old Trail and Western Ridge are leading the way.

One note: with respect to fair market value, my opinion is that an assessment has about as much validity as does a zestimate.

In my opinion, county assessed values are good for one thing – top-level trending information. As I wrote a few years ago:

Assessments are not a reflection of market value. They are a backward-looking assessment of what the market value may have been at the time the assessor looked at the house (most likely online, and not in person). The assessor may or may not know the condition of the property, the condition of the property’s neighbors, may not consider the traffic noise, crime stats, proximity of sexual offenders, level of inventory, smell of the neighborhood, etc. etc. etc. Assessments are why you pay taxes on.

The Daily Progress notes this year:

The current rate is 79.9 cents per $100 of assessed value. At that rate and including an assessment increase of 2.64 percent, the annual tax bill would edge up $63 to $2,460 on a home previously assessed at $300,000. The new assessments will be reflected in tax bills to be mailed in late April.

It costs nearly $12k to educate a student in Albemarle County schools; think about that for a minute when thinking about the new homes – and residents in the County.

I pulled data from the Albemarle County GIS site for the following neighborhoods:

  • Grayrock Orchard
  • Grayrock North
  • Bargamin Park – attached and detached
  • Waylands Grant – attached and detached
  • Western Ridge
  • Highlands (which includes Rockbridge)  – attached and detached
  • Old Trail – see note #3
  • Wickham Pond – attached and detached
  • Laurel Hills
  • Parkside Village – attached and detached

A few notes:


  1. Please. Please review the source data. And correct me.
  2. Source Data is here.
  3. Old Trail is inclusive of all homes – newer attached, older attached, big homes on half acre lots, smaller homes on tiny lots, villas near the golf course … it’s a massive neighborhood.
  4. The data is free; I did spend a bit of money having someone pull it all down and run the spreadsheets
  5. I removed outliers – the Lodge in Old Trail, for example, is valued at about $18 million – that would have messed stuff up. I also pulled new construction this year that was valued for say, $500k this year, when it was valued for $0 last year.
  6. New construction matters; the neighborhoods with the greatest increases had significant amounts of newer homes (even the few newer ones in Western Ridge – the part that feels like Foothills – impacted the numbers).
  7. Thinking about challenging your assessment? The form must be received by the County by 28 February.

Albemarle County real estate assessments are out … did yours go up? Go down? Questions about your assessment? Ask me …(434-242-7140. I’m a real estate agent by the way).

Where are the Walkable Homes in Crozet?

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What does “walkable” mean to you? Or bikeable? Walkscore is great, but it’s not great enough yet in Crozet.

Last week I posted a link on the RealCrozetVA Facebook page to this story.

Less driving and more physical activity and social interactions result when people live in pedestrian-oriented, activity-friendly developments known as “walkable communities,” according to a study led by Texas A&M University Professor of Architecture Xuemei Zhu.

The researchers found that in addition to improved physical and social activity, (the transit-oriented development), Mueller residents perceived more neighborhood cohesion than they did in their previous neighborhood.

So I asked Crozetians – where do you live? Is your home/neighborhood in a walkable location? As usual, the community came through, describing Waylands Grant, Old Trail, Foothill Crossing, Highlands, Foxchase, Westhall, Park Road, Grayrock, Orchard Acres, Parkside Village, Laurel Hills, Liberty Hall.

To see all the descriptions, spend a few minutes at the Facebook post (Storify wouldn’t pull in all the comments). If you’re looking for a walkable home, this is a good place to start your search for walkable homes in Crozet. But don’t place that much faith in the Walkscore; as with most data-driven technologies, it’s efficacy lags in less densely-populated areas. The best way to know how walkable a neighborhood is? Ask.

Walking to Downtown Crozet

Required disclosure: I’m a real estate agent. I represent buyers and sellers in Crozet (and Charlottesville, Albemarle, Nelson, Central Virginia).

Continue reading “Where are the Walkable Homes in Crozet?”

2014 Mid-Year Crozet Real Estate Market Update – Some Numbers

For those who don’t know, I’m a real estate agent. I live in Crozet. I study the market and make a living representing buyers and sellers in Crozet the Charlottesville area. If you’re interested in a broader look at the Charlottesville area real estate market, I wrote a report on my Charlottesville real estate blog.


Comparing the first half of this year with the first half of last year in Crozet’s real estate market …

– Contracts in Crozet are down 8%.

– Prices are up … about 8%

– Home sales (closings) are down 23%

New listings are down 10%

– New construction remains (and will for at least a decade, I’d wager) a major factor in the Crozet market.

– If you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – and that might mean underpricing the competition if you’re in a competitive segment.

– If you’re thinking about buying, do your due diligence and buy well – this sounds like trite advice, but work your way through what life will be every day of the week at that house, not just on the one day you visit.

– Even though the data and analysis here are focused on Crozet, your micro market – Western Ridge, Old Trail (the town home market here is further segmented even), Parkside Village, Laurel Hills, etc … get competent representation.

  Crozet Real estate market update - 2nd Quarter 2014

2014 has proven to be an interesting year.

Two points as you read through this –

1 – new construction in the MLS is a challenging thing. There are different categories: Detached, Attached and Condos (which we don’t have in Crozet) and Proposed Detached, Attached and condos. It’s easy to put a “proposed” listing in and that number isn’t entirely representative of the market; “proposed” listings are one of the reasons I pull numbers by hand rather than relying on the top-level reports, some of which include “proposed” listings … and “proposed” listings weren’t added to the MLS as a category until a few years ago.

For example, when looking at the top-level numbers (including new construction) for single family homes, it appears that there are about 8 months of inventory, yet when you exclude single family, that number is closer to 6 – a healthy, balanced market. (PDFs of most of the data are here)

With that convoluted explanation …

2 – For the purposes of this story, “Crozet” = Crozet Elementary + Brownsville Elementary districts.


Fewer listings could be a good thing as that tends to keep competition healthier. Generally though, we’re still in a buyer’s market.

213 – the number of new listings this year in Crozet (excluding new construction proposed listings) versus 235 last year from 1 January to 30 June.(10% decline)

245 – the number of new listings (including new construction proposed listings) – versus 292 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (16% decline)

52 (24% of the new listings in Crozet) – just in Old Trail, (excluding new) – versus 50 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

72 (29% of the new listings) – just in Old Trail and including new constructionversus 80 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

148 – number of contracts written so far this year – versus 161 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (8% fewer this year)

44 (30% of the total contracts) – number of contracts in Old Trail versus 42 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

102 – Closed sales this year versus 133 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 23% decline. (weather related, perhaps?)

27 (27%) – Closed sales in Old Trail versus 38 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 29% decline.


Right now – 12 July around 2:30pm, there are 81 homes under contract in Crozet – 47 are marked as being new construction.


As I wrote in my monthly note:

If you’re looking to make a decision, analyze your micro market. For example, the $475K – $600K single family detached market in the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary districts: There are 64 such homes under contract in Albemarle County; 38 (59%) are new construction. In Crozet, there are 22 homes in that price range under contract; 18 (82%!) are new construction.

If you’re trying to sell a home in Crozet in that price point, your primary competition is new construction and you need to prepare and price with this in mind. In contrast, in Baker Butler and Hollymead Elementary school districts (29 North), there are 46 single family homes under contract and four in the $475K – $600K range and all are resales. Micro markets are far more relevant than county-state-national market data (or zestimates).


Takeaways:

– If your house didn’t sell this year, you’re not alone; if you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – this may be hard as nationwide, between 20-30% of homeowners are still underwater or near-underwater. (localized data for underwater homes is challenging to find)

– If you are buying this year, make sure you do your due diligence (and preferably hire a knowledgeable buyers’ agent).

– Why is the Crozet market slow? I’m not sure yet; I’ll let you know in 18 months. I know this isn’t the analysis you’re looking for but my initial thoughts are that there are still underwater sellers who aren’t yet able to sell, buyers who are able to buy but don’t yet have full confidence in employment or the market and are still mistrustful of the market and we don’t yet have a big enough employer in Crozet to supply the jobs we need. That said, a lot of people are buying and selling, so while the Crozet market isn’t as robust as the Charlottesville City market, our market remains fairly strong.

Questions?

I’m always happy to answer them.

Continue reading “2014 Mid-Year Crozet Real Estate Market Update – Some Numbers”

Crozet – In Video

Crozet” is hard to define – Understanding Crozet is sometimes difficult, particularly when you’re looking to move to Crozet. Some define Crozet as “the 22932 zip code“. Some define it as broad as “past Ivy“.


 

 

At Nest, we have been slowly releasing our Live Where you Love video series … we have decidedly not overtly branded these as we intended these videos to be for you rather than explicit marketing for us.

(for my clients, this is how I define it – the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary school districts.)

Have questions about Crozet? Ask me. I live here. Or call me – 434-242-7140.

Crozet Real Estate Market Update – November 14, 2011

Looking at some market stats for Crozet (as defined by the Zip Code, 22932). Bullet points first:

– I’m no longer making comparisons beyond three years – the “boom/bubble” years are irrelevant. What matters now is where we are, where we were recently and where we’re going.

Active Listings: Still too many houses on the market in Crozet. Until some of this inventory is sold, we’re still going to struggle with declining prices, high days on market and short sales and foreclosures.

New Listings: Declining. This is good. See the remarks for “Active Listings”

All Pendings (under contract homes): Higher than this time in 2010 and 2009; this is a good thing. More homes under contract will hopefully lead to fewer homes on the market, leading to real estate market stability.

New Pendings: Up. Good.

Sold Listings: Up, year over year. This is a good thing. We’re on a slower pace than this time last year, but that’s ok. If we can build stability slowly, we’ll be ok.

Keep in mind that these statistics are top-level analysis for the Crozet real estate market, inclusive of town homes, (as in, the Highlands and the town homes in Old Trail) single family (as in Laurel Hills, Parkside Village) and new construction and resale homes.

All real estate markets are local. There are subtle and stark market differentiations within even Crozet – based on community offerings (the pool in Western Ridge is nice), proximity to downtown Crozet, proximity to the Old Trail town center, etc.

If you’re thinking about selling, do your due diligence. If you’re considering buying, do your due diligence. There’s a lot to learn on both accounts. If you have questions, please feel free to leave a comment or email me.

Lastly, this is my state-mandated Disclosure (and it’s the right thing to do): I happen to be a real estate agent who lives in Crozet, works in Crozet, Charlottesville and all the surrounding areas, and think that this information is relevant to the readers of RealCrozetVA.

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Market Update – November 14, 2011”