via email (my apologies for taking so long to post)
by Spencer Elliott
I was returning home at around 10:30/10:45 and noticed a glow in he woods between two houses, which I thought peculiar. It looked like a fire, but at first I was in disbelief. It took only a moment more for me to realize it was in fact a fire. I immediately rushed into my house to tell my parents, and we then called 9-1-1 to alert them. Giving them directions was difficult because the fire came from the clearing behind western ridge, which is undeveloped land.
Here are a few pictures, not that they’re amazing quality, but its what we were able to capture.
Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority, along with Faulconer Construction, will be performing water line repair work on Tuesday January 16, 2018. The repair will take place on Route 240 near Park Ridge Drive in Crozet, VA and is scheduled to begin at 8:00 am. Traffic control will be present and will consist of a lane shift into the painted median, to minimize the impact on through traffic, however speeds may be reduced in the work area. Work is scheduled to end at 4:30pm and the normal traffic pattern will be restored.
I was talking to an acquaintance about public meeting attendance, and she recounted how she had attended meetings for years. Her husband would come home from work to watch the kid, sometimes, they’d get a babysitter, she’d forego other opportunities, in order to be a participating member of the community. She, and her family, sacrificed to be citizens.
If you do go to that one meeting because it directly affects you? Go to the next one. And the next one, even if the material affects only the community in which you live, and not your particular back yard, or street.
* 150M vs 129M
* 313 vs 282 up 11%
* New construction – 113 vs 90 – up 26%
* Resale market – pretty flat 200 sold in 2017 w/ 61 DOM vs 192 in 2016 with 57 DOM
* 55 sales over 1 acre vs 52 – people want small yards
* 21 land sales
* 5 distressed
Tight inventory continues
New construction continues to do extremely well.
In Old Trail, in 2016 87 sold, and 2017, 80 sold
Fun Fact – 55 new construction sales in Old Trail both years
Fun Fact – Trails mentioned 5 times in 2007, 35 in 2016 and 40 times in 2017
December 2017 – 29 ratified contracts in 2017 vs 17 in 2016.
Crozet Real Estate Market – Starting 2018
Jim: Hey there. Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.
David: David Farrell with Nest Realty, sitting here at Nest West.
Jim: Do a little bit of Crozet real estate. Looking back at 2017, Crozet had 115 million dollars of real estate sales, versus 129 million in the previous year.
David: It was a heck of a year, Jim. We had 313 sales. That was up 11% from last year — the most ever in Crozet. Remember we’re defining Crozet by the Brownsville —
Jim: And Crozet Elementary.
David: — and Crozet Elementary school district.
Jim: New construction?
David: Was also up. 113 new homes build in Crozet last year, up from 90 the year before in 2016, so that a 26% increase, new home constructions.
Jim: Heck of a year for new.
Resale, actually, was kind of flat. I think, driven by the new construction taking it. 200 sold in 2017 with 61 days on the market, and 192 sold in 2016 with about the same, 57 days on the market.
David: Still impressive though.
We had 55 sales on an acre or more. Those are typically a couple of the older subdivisions in town, but mostly properties outside of the area.
David: There were 21 land sales overall for the year, which is the same as in 2016\. The good news is, we only had five distressed sales over the whole year — short sale, foreclosures — there were 7 in 2016\. So we’re thrilled to see that.
Jim: That’s a great thing.
David: Good to see that figure drop.
Jim: Looking forward to 2018\. We’re going to have continued tight inventory. It’s going to be hard to buy a house for a lot of people. New construction is going to continue to kill it, I think.
Jim: — but for those looking for stuff under 500 in Crozet…
David: It’s getting hard.
Jim: It’s going to be hard, getting harder.
David: Attached home in Old Trail or lock into a resale.
Old Trail, 2016, 87 sold, and 2017, fewer — 80 sold.
David: I thought it was extremely interesting in Old Trail that 55 new construction sold in 2017; the exact same as in 2016\. So even though we see dirt flying over there constantly, the build-out rate seems to be around 55 — between 50 and 60…
Jim: Which is good. A good stable rate of new construction.
My fun fact for this one is that in 2007 in the MLS, trails were mentioned as a selling point five times; 2016, 35 times, and last year, 2017, 40 times. So huge kudos to the Crozet Trails crew for all that they do.
David: Great growing trail system.
And, busy, busy December. In Brownsville and Crozet there were 29 ratified contracts in 2017, only 17 in 2016.
David: Pretty impressive.
David: Busy drinking beer around here also?
Jim: Oh, there’s lots of places to drink beer.
David: Third Thursday of the month, we’re going to be up at the Roof Top, so that’s Thursday, January 18th; we’ll be up there from 5 to 7 if you want to come talk about real estate. If you have any questions about heading into 2018, just stop by and have a beer, and we’ll be happy to chat with you.
Jim: If you’re thinking about selling your house, I think now is the time to start having the conversation about getting ready for the spring market, because it is really and truly right around the corner.
David: I’ve got listings coming on this week. I bet you do also?
An offshoot of the CCA; focused on guiding the development of Downtown Crozet, raising funds for grants, providing feedback to the developer, and disseminating what the developer is doing.
Their mission: “Our mission is to foster a high quality of life in Downtown Crozet by securing resources to ensure that future downtown redevelopment preserves the best of the original character while serving the needs of a growing population. To that end, DCI, Inc. will support economic vitality and community development in Downtown Crozet and facilitate many of the recommendations of the Albemarle County Crozet Master Plan.”
Volunteer community organization. Useful for learning about what’s going on in Crozet, and meeting neighbors. Growth and development stuff, in addition to community matters.
“The CCA was incorporated in February 1985 by a group of local Crozet residents who saw the need to work together to protect, preserve, and enhance our Crozet community and establish a forum where all are welcome.We meet on the second Thursday of the odd-numbered months (e.g., January, March) at 7:30 PM at the Field School.”
Useful for learning about what’s going on in Crozet. Mostly focused on growth & development stuff.
Appointment by the Board of Supervisors.
The Crozet Community Advisory Committee (CCAC) is an advisory committee that provides assistance to County staff and the Board of Supervisors on civic/community issues related to implementation of the Crozet Master Plan in accordance with established county procedures. Members will communicate with their constituencies to increase understanding of and support for successful implementation of the Master Plan. The membership is broad-based to incorporate a variety of perspectives and ideas and to provide citizens, businesspersons and representatives of active community groups a chance to be engaged and be heard in a constructive and meaningful way. The Crozet Community Advisory Committee is guided by two key documents, the Fact Sheet and the Rules of Procedure.
The CCAC does not approve or deny anything; they can vote, but don’t have to.
Provide guidance to the BoS. Lots of projects are run through the CCAC, in part because many projects need to have public hearings. Often, that “community hearing” is fulfilled by going to the CCAC.
They “are appointed by the BOS and there are 7 of us. One for each district and an at large member. (Their) votes are recommendations passed onto the BoS. They meet at 6pm on Tuesdays … not all Tuesdays, but many and the schedule is online“
PC is often attended only by those concerned about a project that affects their own backyard.
Ongoing series, of undetermined length, in which I am putting together information that will hopefully serve to inform, pique curiosity, and spur Crozetians to ask questions, and get informed and involved … for things that affect everyone’s backyards, not just their own.
Earlier this month (November 2016) county staff unrolled a large map on a table in the Crozet Library and invited members of the committee to inspect it.
“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”
Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.
“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”
Demographers at the University of Virginia are forecasting a sharp increase in Albemarle’s population by the year 2045, but a smaller rise for the city of Charlottesville.
Lombard said whether projections meet reality will depend on land use decisions made by Virginia localities.
The center’s data projects Albemarle County growing to a population of 118,828 in 2025, 134,104 in 2035 and 148,337 in 2045. The center’s population estimate for 2016 is 105,715, an increase of 6,745 people since the 2010 Census.
“The county is working diligently on implementing the Comprehensive Plan vision, which anticipated this kind of growth,” said Andrew Gast-Bray, the county’s community development director. In 1980, the Board of Supervisors designated five percent of the county’s land for development and restricted growth in the remaining 95 percent.
Their projections can be misleading. In general an annualized rate of 2.7% is fairly aggressive on a macro level, but low considering all the ongoing activity. To add 3-4K residents, that’s about 8-10% annual growth, which would be exceptional. The designated growth area historically has grown 4.0% since 2010, so I think a defensible aggressive projection would be somewhere between 4.0 and 8%. A growing job base in Crozet would make that aggressive projection much more realistic. I thought the median age difference between the general 5 mile radius (42.3 years) and designated growth area (39 years) was pretty interesting.
Second in a series of undetermined length, in which I am putting together information that will hopefully serve to inform, pique curiosity, and spur Crozetians to ask questions, and get informed and involved … for things that affect everyone’s backyards, not just their own.
If there are errors or things I’ve gotten wrong, please forgive me, and correct me.
This is the only post (so far) in which I’m throwing information out with little analysis or context, in the hopes that someone will see it for the first time, get curious, dig in, and ask questions. And maybe even post those questions here, or ask the school board (our rep is David Oberg), or the Board of Supervisors (Ann Mallek). Or, even better, have a conversation in person with a friend or neighbor.
My hope is that someone takes this as a prompt to find out more, and share with the community what they find, whether in a follow up post, or in the comments. These are ideas and thoughts, and not fully-fleshed stories.
If there are errors, please correct me. Questions, ask them.
I know that as more houses are built, and few bike/pedestrian/car/parking solutions are proposed or implemented, Crozet is going to have issues. Traffic is an issue.
Work is underway to design new science labs and modernized classrooms for Western Albemarle High School and its Environmental Studies Academy.
A 10,000 square-foot addition to the school will include three new labs, an office and prep rooms with storage. Seven existing science classrooms and six more classrooms throughout the school building will be renovated.
The project is budgeted at approximately $5.5 million, and was funded through the 2016 bond referendum.
Looks like Western Albemarle High School has been allocated nearly $7M for the Environmental Service Academy, and Henley $2.5M for a new gym.
Crozet Elementary wants $6M for an addition, and Western wants $4.4M for an addition.
How much money has Crozet gotten for infrastructure? And how much do we need?
Discerning how much we’ve gotten is findable (below needs updating for 2017/18). How much do we need? I have no idea.
As I was putting together the coming series, I wanted to interject & highlight our amazing local news people.
So much happens in the Charlottesville area, and most (99%) of us cannot attend the meetings consistently, process the information, research, put into context. We need local reporters. To them all: Thank you.
Who’s going to go to planning commission meetings? Board of Supervisors? Service Authority Board meetings? Without local reporters and reporting, our community & our democracy suffer.
Yes, they are expensive ($10/month vs $6 or so for Washington Post or NYTimes) and their website burns the eyes, and they deleted their archives in 2008 But.Supporting them is worthwhile. Despite the fact that they’re owned by one of the richest people in the world.
Edit: as I mentioned in the comment below – “I meant “simple” in only a positive context – I was thinking of something well-executed, and done well, like a house with clean lines that is beautiful. ” There’s a reason that I when I think about it, I note here on the blog the new issue of the Gazette, and encourage everyone to pick it up. A sign of excellence is making things look simple.