December 11, 2025
Quick take: 2025 Crozet home sales show slowing pace and narrowing pricing power. Resale homes are gaining market share, and sellers must price with precision in 2026.
December 2025, and the Crozet real estate market continues to roll on, in spite of the snow, ice, and upcoming holidays. In early January I’ll look at a full set of data, but what matters most is today, tomorrow, and next year.
Some quick data points to level set:
- 277 sold homes in Crozet + Brownsville so far in 2025. * as of 9 December 2025
- Median price is $545,000
- Resale homes – 180 resales sold so far – median price: $570,000
- 68 attached homes. Median price: $435,000. Median days on market: 10
- 112 detached homes. Median price: $674,500. Median days on market: 15
- New construction – 97 new construction sold so far this year. Median price: $509,397 — 2024: 142 and $508,658 — virtually no appreciate year over year.
- 75 attached homes. Median price: $463,623
- 2024: 118 and $488,757
- 22 detached homes. Median price: $842,775
- 2024: 24 and $800,828
- 75 attached homes. Median price: $463,623
A few thoughts about the Crozet real estate market in 2026
- Attached homes are providing the most affordable product in Crozet. I’m not saying it’s affordable housing, but it’s the most affordable we have, broadly.
- We had 21 homes under $350K that have sold so far in Crozet, and 35 between $350K and $400K.
- Sellers are going to be competing with resales more than new construction in 2026.
- The market isn’t collapsing, but it’s punishing overpricing. We’re still getting very good prices per square foot when we come out of the gate correctly.
- About 35% of 2025 closings in Crozet so far this year are new construction; there are still about 3 weeks left, and there will be a few more closings. . This segment materially shapes comps and buyer expectations, especially around finishes and energy efficiency. And thus, many sellers are competing with new builds, whether directly or indirectly. Indirectly because buyers’ expectations for presentation and condition are rising.
- The pricing ceiling is flattening but the floor is rising; the lower end of the market is drifting upward, driven by attached inventory and somewhat by interest-rate-driven demand concentration.
- This is significant. Resale sellers need more precision in pricing because they are no longer “riding the wave” of new-build price growth. Strong and rigorous data-driven market analysis will be critical in 2026.
- Year over year pricing stability in new construction hides a meaningful shift — Builders are not driving prices up as they have been; they have more flexibility in pricing, more room to maneuver than a lot of resale homeowners/sellers.
A few broader thoughts on the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate markets
I just published my December 2026 note in which I go into detail about market thoughts for 2026.
Why Looking Forward Matters More Than Looking Back
Looking backwards is useful to provide context for the future, but only to a degree. Today and tomorrow matter more than yesterday.
2026 will be defined less by what happened in 2025 and more by inventory and demographics than mortgage rates and history. Looking forward.
One of the best quotes I’ve read about nostalgia comes from John Hodgman: “Normally I consider nostalgia to be a toxic impulse. It is the twinned, yearning delusion that (a) the past was better (it wasn’t) and (b) it can be recaptured (it can’t) …”
Key takeaways going forward:
- Buyers: Patience may be your friend. But, be prepared to make your decision to buy/not buy efficiently; better to quickly decide not to offer than to see the house go under contract before you’ve made time to see and evaluate the house.
- Sellers: More than you may have ever experienced, pricing and preparation matter. Excellent data and market analysis is critical.
- Comps: When evaluating homes, we obviously look at sold comps. Now we also look at the withdrawn and expired listings and the active competition that is both under contract or not. Yesterday matters less than today and tomorrow.
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Four Things I’m watching now and in 2026
De-listings, and anticipating re-listings. We’re seeing more de-listings than I recall ever seeing. 125 withdrawn this year so far. There were 17 last year. Is this a great way to evaluate this segment? I think it’s good enough. If 100 of those 125 come on the market next year, they will meaningfully affect the market, especially if they come on at lower prices.
Price reductions and patience. How motivated might the sellers be? How patient will buyers be now that they have choices and options?
Contracts and days on market. Did you know there’s a movement among a big national brokerage or two to remove public display of days on market? Yeah, insane. How fast do homes go under contract? And how many price reductions are necessary?
New listings: When did they purchase and for how much? This is a big one. For the people whose only experience in residential real estate is setting the price based on what they want/need to make, a market based more on data is a huge shift. Think about it: if you bought in 2017, sold in 2023 and made a big profit and bought another house, and life happens in 2026, you might not be able to sell without losing money. That’s a monumental change, which may lead to lower inventory because these sellers may choose to stay or rent. (What are the sellers’ expectations likely to be?)
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