Category: real estate

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Crozet Real Estate Market Update – July 2022

I haven’t written one of these in a while. There’s a lot happening the national, regional, Crozet real estate market, so I thought I’d put some thoughts to metaphorical paper.

I wrote recently, in part

tl;dr: the market is changing, and what we’ve become accustomed to has changed. Questions? Ask me.

I started this section in the first few days of June, and have re-written it at least three five six times. My “econ” twitter list has been active as everyone learns about this market.

In short, I think we’re in a transitioning market rather than a transitory market; everything is different now.

This is a bit of a scary time in the real estate market. In the end, it will be OK. The move from a super-hot, multiple offer, escalating offers market to a much, much more conservative and even aggressive pricing strategy market has been fast.

One of the most important parts of what I do is help manage expectations of my clients. Two recent emails, one from a buyer and one from a seller’s agent, on a house my buyer lost out on in a multiple offer situation:

  1. “We have thought about it and have decided to rent for a year before buying, hopefully to give the housing market time to settle! If it is okay with you we would love to reach out again next year when we are looking again.”
  2. “They are all over the place, even wondering if they should just wait for other offers, which I am advising against.”

My response to the buyer was that I’ll absolutely be here next year and that I thought they were making a good decision. I’ve said the same thing to quite a few buyers recently. Twelve years ago I wrote that I think people moving to Charlottesville should rent first; I still think that’s the best advice.

My response to the seller’s agent was echoing her advice that waiting for other offers likely wouldn’t yield more offers. I suspect that those sellers were basing their expectations on the market from a few months ago rather than today’s reality. 

I wrote this on 12 June in my post, Inventory Up, Price Reductions Down.
  • The market from earlier in the pandemic that may be helping sellers set their own expectations is gone. As I’ve told clients, “What your neighbor got for their house four months ago, and how fast, and with however many offers, is irrelevant.”

Ali Wolf tweeted “If someone could afford the monthly payment of a $450,000 home at a 3% interest rate, the equivalent payment at a 6% interest rate is for a $316,000 home.”

I’m writing offers now with interest rate caps of 6.5%, and I’m thinking 7% might be next. And in the future, rates will fall again, and people will refinance. We will be fine.

Take a $600K house, with 20% down, at 3.25% interest = PI of $2,089/month. Principal + interest (not including taxes and insurance).At 6%, for that $600K house, the PI is $2,878.

At 6%, a $2,086 monthly payment with 20% down will get you a $435K house.

Sellers, keep the above in mind when pricing your home; better yet, let’s talk it through together.

I’ve written “new normal” countless times over the years; whatever is happening today is our normal.

NB: I use Karl’s Mortgage calculator, and include taxes and interest; not every online mortgage calculator does.

Keep this in mind.

“Homebuyers on a $2,500 Monthly Budget Have Lost $118,000 in Spending Power This Year Amid Surge in Mortgage Rates. A buyer on a $2,500 budget can afford a $400,000 home with a 6% mortgage rate. That’s compared to a $517,000 home with a 3% mortgage rate.” 

Things will be ok. 

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Market Update – July 2022”
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Looking at Crozet’s 2022 Real Estate Market

2021 may go in the books as one of the most expensive and fastest-moving markets in history. I wrote a bit about my thoughts on 2022:

Much the same as 2021. The pandemic will continue, inventory will be tight, and there will be a lot of competition for a lot of houses, and less for others. Similar story, different year.

  • Pandemic 
    • Inflation, supply chain, labor, economy, etc. etc. etc. 
  • Interest Rates (see below)
  • Inventory
  • More buyers in the Charlottesville – Albemarle market are going to give up and either continue renting, or move away.
  • Inventory
  • Climate change is going to affect *everything* including what we pay for homeowners insurance.
  • New construction costs
  • Inventory

Have a question? Looking for representation? I’m here. (disclosure that I’m sure you figured out: I’m a Realtor)

What do the numbers below mean?

Defining “Crozet” as “Brownsville + Crozet Elementary School districts”

  • 434 homes sold in Crozet in 2021
    • 172 were new construction; all but one of these were an acre or less
    • 262 resale homes sold; average days on market was 30, and the median days on market was 6.
  • Average price for all homes sold was $527K and the median price was $468K
    • Average price for new construction was $558K and the median was $520K.
  • 287 single family homes sold and 146 attached homes sold
  • Of the 434 homes sold, 381 were on a acre or less. 354 were on half an acre or less

Did you know?

“… Crozet had a population increase of 65.75% in the last 10 years, from about 5,565 in 2010 to approximately 9,224 in 2020, according to census data.“

And some not-specifically-related to real estate, but really about real estate thoughts and Crozet:

We need to bring business to Crozet, and do whatever we can to lure/cajole/entice businesses to move to Crozet and provide jobs so that Crozetians don’t have to commute to Charlottesville or elsewhere; this will be better for the Crozet and Albemarle economies, good for community by keeping people here, and if we can manage to build houses, we should be able to build supporting non-auto-centric infrastructure so that people are able to move from one place to another without having to get into a car.

Bike and pedestrian infrastructure is good for community, climate, health and wellness, and the economy. We need a vision that looks beyond the next few months and years, and envisions what we can be in 25 to 50 years.

Yes, we are getting some roundabouts, a bigger Crozet Elementary, and piecemeal sidewalks interspersed here and there. But we need to do better, and I’m pretty sure that we can.

Questions?

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Moving to Crozet? (via Reddit)

This question on Reddit was a fun writing prompt for me.

Hi all hoping you can give me the local’s perspective of Crozet. My wife and I are lifelong Marylanders seriously looking at moving away from the DC area to the greater Charlottesville area in the next 2-3 years. We’ve got two kids in elementary school and are looking for a lot of what the area has to offer. We came down earlier this summer and stumbled upon Crozet as a potential area of interest.

Is it really as nice as it seems? What are you’re thoughts? We want to be close enough to Charlottesville but be able to maintain a small-town feel.

And my answer

Lots of people from NoVa/DC/Maryland move to Crozet/Charlottesville.

Crozet is a great place to live; we’ve raised two kids here. Close to mountains, hiking, biking, 25-30 minutes to Charlottesville, and Crozet is becoming more self-sufficient all them time. The mountains aren’t going anywhere.

But … as I tell my clients (yes, I’m an agent), there’s a ton of growth yet to come, and in my opinion (as someone who’s lived in Crozet for 20 years, and as a Realtor), this growth comes with challenges. Much of the growth is homogeneous with limited character, but that’s the nature of such production-built-homes, schools are crowded, and traffic (yes, really) can be a challenge. 64 can be a disaster, but they are improving 118B.

Keeping the “small town” feel is one of the key points in the Crozet Master Plan, and is often discussed. But … I don’t have great confidence in the Plan being followed; it’s an aspirational document it seems. If you live close to the elementary schools (there are two, Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary), you can walk or ride bikes to school with your kids. This was one of the best things I did as a parent.

Quite a few links:

I’d be happy to put you in touch with clients who have made the same move.

Continue reading “Moving to Crozet? (via Reddit)”
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CCAC Meeting – February 2019 | Schools, and Recycling

This should be an interesting meeting, seeing as how most everyone in Crozet benefits from having a great school system. I’ll reserve my cynicism for my in-meeting tweets.

#CCAC0219

Crozet Library 
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 from 7:00 p.m. to 8:45 p.m. 

Agenda 

1.    Introductions and Agenda Review (Allie Pesch – CCAC chair) 

2.    Approval of Minutes 

3.    Recycling in Western Albemarle (Trudy Brement, Emma-Caroline Avery, and Maren Eanes, Henley Middle School – 20 min) 

Due to illness, the recycling discussion will be postponed. Instead, our neighborhood planner Andrew Knuppel will be presenting the county’s new development dashboard and giving us an overview of Crozet developments currently “in the pipeline.”

4.    Western Albemarle Feeder Pattern School Capacity and Enrollment (Rosalyn Schmitt, ACPS Chief Operating Officer – 60 min) 

5.    Items Not Listed on the Agenda 

6.    Announcements 

7.    Future Agenda Items 
        –  Joel DeNunzio, VDOT (March) 
        –  Chesterfield Landing Phase III Review 
        –  Albemarle County Development Pipeline Dashboards (Andrew Knuppel) 
        –  The Square and Barnes Lumber Updates? 

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Insight for Buyers and Sellers in Crozet, Looking to 2019

We are releasing our Annual Nest Report shortly; if you’d like a copy, please email Jim or Greg.

Transcript

Jim: Hey. I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty (434-242-7140).

Greg: And I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty (434-981-6655). We wanted to take this opportunity to talk to you a little bit about the Crozet Market. When we talk about the Crozet Market, we define it as the elementary school districts of Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary.

Continue reading “Insight for Buyers and Sellers in Crozet, Looking to 2019”

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Crozet Real Estate Market – Nearing End of 2018

Sales are slowing, inventory is creeping up, new construction is moving along, and we’re seeing price moderations. Watch the whole video, skim the transcript; ask us questions.

 

Jim: Hey there, I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty here in Crozet.

Greg: And I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty. We define the Crozet market as the school districts of Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary. We gave you some stats in our last video. We were talking about the fact that sales in Crozet were down about 10% at that point. Moving ahead, we’re looking a little bit past the third quarter to the end of October, year to date. We’re still going in the wrong direction. Now we’re about 16% off.

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Market – Nearing End of 2018”

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Mid-2018 Crozet Real Estate Market Update

Crozet real estate market update with Greg Slater and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

The first half of 2018 is behind us, and we talked about resales vs new construction, home prices, where in Crozet homes are selling, what happened with home inventory over the past few years.

Note that this is a longer video than typical; we covered a lot.

Thanks to the Rooftop for letting us use their … Rooftop.

(Greg and I are getting accustomed to doing these videos together … we will get better)

Transcript

Continue reading “Mid-2018 Crozet Real Estate Market Update”

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Drink it Forward – For Crozet Park

Thursday, 12 April 2018.

Beer at Rooftop.

For Charity. (and community)

Tip: Ride a bike or walk. It’s going to be 75º at 6pm tomorrow.

Each month Nest Realty hosts a social soiree to benefit a different organization or charity. This month we’ve teamed up with Piedmont Place to benefit Claudius Crozet Park, Inc.

Thursday, April 12th, starting at 5:30pm, we’ll have a keg tapped and flowing at The Rooftop Crozet. All you have to do is ask for the Nest keg! We’ll have a donation box available that you can drop a $5, $10 or $20, if so moved.

 

 

*real estate disclosure: many readers know that I am a realtor and Partner at Nest Realty. 

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Why Move to Crozet?

It’s a real estate post; I’m real estate agent. One of the best additions to Nest’s site over the years is the Seller’s Scoop – where the seller tells their story. Pictures are worth 1,000 words, but a few authentic words are invaluable. I love the words of my clients.

Wickham Pond

  • Living Here Has Been: We have loved that we have found this place in Wickham Pond in Crozet, VA. We had no idea how much we would fall in love with this place every. single. day. The mountains, the people, the energy! We love that we can go to D.C. or Richmond or just stay home. There is magic in these mountains!!
  • View: We love our mountain view from the master bedroom. It faces toward the farm with rolling hills with the mountain as a back drop. You can literally see the weather move in as it approaches.
  • Room: We love to watch the fire in the living room especially on a chilly night.
  • Walk: We love to walk through our neighborhood and even the Wickham Pond trails. There is even a trail that crosses over into Western Ridge. It is easy to walk to Highlands as well. So many ways to walk or run. All the neighborhoods have hills and flat areas
  • Hike: We love to hike Sugar Hollow, Humpback and even Mint Springs. We just discovered the Ragged Mountain area where you can hike around the reservoir. The options are endless from the Monticello Trail to the Shenandoah National Park right in our backyard!
  • Breakfast: A new local breakfast place just opened in downtown Crozet. Simple menu. Good food. We love to go to Charlottesville and eat at the Bluegrass Grill! YUM.
  • Lunch: Roots Natural Kitchen in Charlottesville is the best. A great meal that fills your belly and doesn’t empty your wallet! A UVA student started/run business. Greenwood Gourmet Grocery Store is such a fun place to shop for local and interesting goodies and
  • Dinner: Sal’s Pizza in Crozet is our go to Pizza Shop! Restoration in Old Trail in a wonderful place to chill out and enjoy a beautiful view!! On the Downtown mall, we love to go to the Red Pump. Delicious farm to table.
  • Pub/Winery: Fardowners….local fare and hometown feel right next to the Crozet Hardware store and Mudhouse Coffee Shop!!!

Parkside Village

SELLER’S SCOOP

  • Living Here Has Been: Community. We’ll miss it. Crozet parades, special events. Passing books from one person to the next in a long line stretching from the “old Crozet library” to the beautiful new building will be something we remember forever!
  • View: Bathroom picture window. Most mornings I wake up, walk into the bathroom, and spend a second to take in the mountain view looking south from the house to Heards Mountain.
  • Room: Kitchen, as seen from the family room. Claudine loves to cook so I have spent many an evening sitting in the family room reading or watching TV while smelling the delights she’s cooking up from the kitchen. When onions, garlic, and olive oil hit the pan
  • Tree: The maple in our back yard. It’s beautiful in the spring and glorious in the fall. Best of all it’s far enough away from the house that I haven’t had to clean a gutter since moving in!
  • Walk: Name one. From this location we can walk to our favorite downtown shops or restaurants, hit the Crozet trails to surrounding neighborhoods, walk the new track around Crozet Park, or simply stroll the Parkside neighborhood.
  • Hike: Mint Springs Park – great mountain trails with great views. Once while in the park we may have even ventured off the beaten path and up Bucks Elbow Mountain to find the site of the 1959 plane crash.
  • Breakfast: Coffee and a pastry at Mudhouse
  • Lunch: Sandwich at Greenhouse or Crozet Pizza.
  • Dinner: Fardowners – Sunday evening especially – $2.50 pints on VA brewed beers!
  • Pub/Winery: Stinson Vineyards – unbelievable mountain views, great wine, and live music on Thursday evenings in the summer.
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Questions/Curious about the Crozet Real Estate Market?

If you are curious about the market, and googling isn’t doing it for you, come talk to two experts about the Crozet real estate market.

Questions about the Crozet real estate market? Curious about the new construction or resale market? Stop by NestWest in Piedmont PlaceThursday from 5 to 7, grab a drink Blue Ridge Bottle Shop, a bite from Morsel Compass, dessert at Crozet Creamery, and chat with David & Jim!

NestWest is right next to Over the Moon Bookstore & Artisan Gallery!