2023 was a year of low inventory, lots of new construction, and mostly increasing home values in Crozet. Have questions? Ask me. This is a reasonably high-level overview of the Crozet real estate market, and your specific micro-market will vary.
A quick look at some data to level set for 2024.
In 2023:
336 homes (attached + detached) sold in Crozet + Brownsville Elementary School districts. (318 in 2022)
152 of those were new construction. (129 in 2022)
Average sale price of single family home in Crozet in 2023 – $708K; $727 in 2022.
Average sale price of an attached home in Crozet in 2023 – $479K; $470K in 2022.
That’s just data. But what does it mean?
Rising interest rates in 2023 did not affect prices as much as many expected. What we did see as a result of higher rates were more people choosing to stay in their homes because the next place was so much more expensive due to increasing values and increasing interest rates.
We had fewer resale listings in 2023 than we did in 2022 — 189 new listings in 2022 and 167 new listings in 2023.
New construction is filling some of the void, and we need even more new construction that is affordable to more — more grandparents want to move to Crozet to be close to the grandkids (and the kids want parents to come help! Childcare is *expensive.*). More kids want to move closer to parents in Crozet. By restricting growth and not bringing more businesses and building commensurate non-car-centric infrastructure, we are making poor community decisions.
Great. But what does it mean to you?
That depends. What are you looking to do? Sell your home in Crozet? Buy a home in Crozet??Understand your 2024 Albemarle County real estate assessment?
My answer is almost everything in real estate starts with “it depends;”
More specifically, if you’re considering any of the above, what does the data mean to you?
Not much, other than we tend to have more buyers than sellers in the Crozet real estate market, and with the right preparation, guidance, council, marketing, and representation, sellers should do well.
Hopefully, this relatively high overview of our market gives you some insight. Know this — pricematters.
The best answer to “what does this data mean to me?” — ask questions.
What’s 2024 going to bring to Crozet’s real estate market?
Competition. Continued low inventory. Increased buyer competition as interest rates moderate. Hopefully dirt pushing on the Downtown Crozet project.
Sellers who need and want to sell.
Buyers who need and want to buy.
It’s going to be a good year in Crozet.
Source of all numbers: Charlottesville MLS. Images created with ChatGPT-4
I write these every month, and send to clients — past, present, and likely future — and thought there’s likely a fair bit of crossover between those who read Crozet news, and those who are curious/interested in broader Charlottesville – Albemarle information and real estate stories.
Happy December, nearly January. Next month, I’ll be level-setting 2024’s Charlottesville area real estate market. This month — the value of knowing what’s around the corner, seeking community, the market and an offer to you to talk about your house’s value.
Questions? I’m always here. 434-242-7140 or reply to this note (after sharing with a friend, if you’re so inclined).
The Market.
The year is nearly over, final closings will be taking place this week. And 2024 will be a new start. 2023 saw ups (interest rates) and downs (inventory), and lots of changes on the horizon (lawsuits).
Interested in a check-in on your house’s value, if only to just see if Zillow is accurate?Ask me – just reply to this email.
Best answer right now? I suspect we’re going to see a bit more of the same.
The City of Charlottesville has revamped its zoning, and despite the angst, I suspect the effects will be slow and then fast.
Albemarle County remains a great place to live, and new construction shows that people a) want to live here and b) haven’t been able to find existing houses to fill their housing needs. As of 27 December, 1,685 homes have sold in Albemarle; 503 (30%) of those were new construction. Last year 1,854 homes sold; 442 (24%) were new. We’ll see more new construction.
Average sold price of the 611 single-family homes that have sold in 2023 in Albemarle County with at least 3 bedrooms and 2 baths in 2023? $820K. Median? $662K.
Average price of the 200 single-family homes that sold in 2023 in the City of Charlottesville with at least 3 bedrooms and 2 baths in 2023? $706K. Median? $604K.
Interest rates are falling. 6.5% is much better than 8.25%. We’re going to see more buyers coming to the market, and keep having low inventory — many buyers already have homes, and either don’t have mortgages or have rates under 4%, so they won’t be sellers.
When representing sellers, for pricing and marketing conversations, we talk about how many homes they will be competing with. For buyers, we talk about how many homes will come on the market that will fit in their specificmarket segments.
For January, I’m working on a level-setting post: number of homes on the market, prices, days on the market, what may be hot (or cold) market segments, and a bit more. I generally write these to satisfy my own curiosity and hope that you find it interesting, too.
For those looking to buy or sell next year — what questions do you have?
2024 coming at us like a freight train.
We knew it was coming. It still sucks.
2023 vs 2019
And that’s okay.
We bought our home in 2004. We’re still there. (“Move” is a four-letter word.) We knew the field where the road ends would one day be houses. We talked about it when we made the offer, knowing that the place where our dogs pooped would become a new neighborhood.
Welp, now that the road is open, and we are welcoming new pedestrians, bike riders, dogs, and fast cars, I’m glad that we knew it was coming.
Despite my efforts to have the road opened to only people not in cars, and for Albemarle County to make a decision that worked to alter human movement patterns, the road is open. (They were walking/riding as soon as it was possible before the road was opened — why not try to encourage that?)
And I’m glad we knew. And it still sucks. And it’s great — more people walking, riding, and yes driving. And if the County ever actually builds the road they’ve been promising, it will be even more walkable and bikeable to downtown Crozet.
I’ve long written about how I represent my clients with professionalism, empathy, and shared experiences — marriage, job changes, kids, grandkids, aging parents, and now firsthand, having the adjacent property change use, altering our enjoyment of the home. Not worse, but different. Change is good.
I paid to renew my license the other day. $80 to the Commonwealth of Virginia. I guess I’m doing this for another couple of years.
6.5/7 days, I wake up, and I’m happy and grateful to do what I do — representing people buying or selling homes, guiding them as appropriate through significant, important, sometimes traumatic, life events.
I’d like to think that loving what I do comes through in how I represent my clients; I’m always learning, always trying to do the right thing for my clients, and never ever feeling like I’m good enough at what I do to stop asking lots of questions — and I ask my clients to ask questions, too!
The emotions of a home
Working on for next month: Every home buying or selling decision is filled with emotions. Knowing that, and knowing how and when to either work to pull them back, or allow them to build, is one of the unspoken, and untaught skills required (in my opinion) for effective representation.
Updating my thinking | Seeking Community
99% of my clients express some degree of, “we want to be part of something — a community, friends, etc.”
A few examples:
“We would like to be in a neighborhood with lots of kids, a good community vibe, sidewalks, ideally near walking trails, and with a sense of privacy would be great.
“So that we can feel settled and to establish ourselves within the community”
“Walkability, community, access to trails, good schools, and “outdoorsy” culture”
“Want to plant roots/sense of permanence/build community, ability to somewhat customize since we’ve been renting forever (for example: paint if we want), investment, and we’ve built up enough savings for a down payment.”
I wrote the following in 2016, and I’ve evolved (I’d like to think that evolution is an improvement)
I do care about my clients, but I care about their kids more. Here’s my explanation:
Years ago I had the humbling awareness of the gravity of the decisions my clients, with my guidance and advice, were making. One of my favorite parts of what I do (and one of the reasons that if I were to win the lottery big I’d still practice real estate) is helping clients buy a home and then representing them when they sell years later.
Often, in that time, kids happen and grow. The adults, as I say, tend to be reasonably intelligent and responsible people – tasked with making life decisions that will impact not only the rest of their lives but the lives of their kids as well. Their kids have no say in the matter and are entirely dependent on the adults making good decisions.
And that’s terrifying. For all of us. So I do care about you, I just recognize that the kids tend to matter more. Darn it.
After explaining my reasoning to a client recently, part of her response was
“Have a wonderful time coaching (soccer) today and thank you so much for taking the time to help me. Thank you for keeping my kids at the center of your attention!”
Yeah, that’s why I do what I do.
A few years after I wrote that I was talking to clients and they pushed back a bit on my thinking. “Yes, we love our kids and want them to be happy, but we want to be happy and have friends, too.”
Yep. I don’t think I was wrong, but my view was myopic. Maybe that was due to the particular life stage I was in.
Any guesses on what those icy patches represent? I have my guesses.
(NEW) Other construction – Expect lane and shoulder closures in the following areas:
Interstate 64, left lane closed between mile marker 104 and mile marker 105 in the eastbound lanes, Monday through Thursday, 7 p.m. to 5:30 a.m.
Interstate 64, right shoulder closed between mile marker 105 and mile marker 107 in the eastbound lanes, Monday through Thursday, 7 p.m. to 5:30 a.m.
Interstate 64, right shoulder closed between mile marker 104 and mile marker 107 in the westbound lanes, Monday through Thursday, 7 p.m. to 5:30 a.m.
(NEW) Pothole patching – Expect mobile, alternating lane closures in the following areas:
Interstate 64, between mile marker 100 and mile marker 131 in the eastbound and westbound lanes, Wednesday and Thursday, 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.
Route 240 (Crozet Avenue), between U.S. 250 (Rockfish Gap Turnpike) and Route 1230 (Meadows Drive) in the northbound and southbound lanes, Tuesday, 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.
(UPDATE) Pipe repairs/installation – Expect lane and shoulder closures in the following areas:
Interstate 64, left lane and left should closed between mile marker 110 and mile marker 111 in the westbound lanes, daily through Thursday, 8 a.m. to 1 p.m.
Route 750 (Old Turnpike Road), road closed between Route 803 (Goodloe Lane) and U.S. 250 (Rockfish Gap Turnpike) with a signed detour. Drivers should follow message board detour route, Monday and Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
(UPDATE) Bridge repairs – Expect lane closures in the following areas:
Route 676 (Woodlands Road), alternating lane closures with flaggers between Route 743 (Earlysville Road) and Cedar Bluff Road in the northbound and southbound lanes, Monday through Friday, 7 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Route 680 (Browns Gap Turnpike), road closed between Route 240 (Three Notch’d Road) and Route 802 (Old Three Notch’d Road). Drivers heading north on Route 680 should continue west on Route 240 to Route 802 and turn right to rejoin Route 680 north of the work zone, Monday through Thursday, 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
(NEW) Tree trimming – Expect lane closures in the following areas.
Route 6, (Irish Road), mobile, alternating lane closures between the Nelson County line and Route 20 (Valley Street) in the eastbound and westbound lanes, Monday through Thursday, 8 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Route 53, (Thomas Jefferson Highway), alternating lane closures with flaggers between Route 1102 (Michie Tavern Lane) and the Fluvanna County line in the eastbound and westbound lanes, daily, 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.
U.S. 29 (Monacan Trail) – Tree removal. Expect alternating lane closures between the Nelson County line and Route 745 (Arrowhead Valley Road) in the northbound and southbound lanes, daily, 7 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
(NEW) U.S. 250 (Richmond Road) – Roadway improvements. Expect alternating lane closures between Route 179 (Hansens Mountain Road) and Route 1107 (North Hill) in the eastbound and westbound lanes, Tuesday and Wednesday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
(UPDATE) U.S. 250 (Rockfish Gap Turnpike) – Road widening project. Expect lane closures between Birdsall Lane and Route 750 (Old Turnpike Road). The westbound lanes will remain reduced from two lanes to one and the eastbound lane shift will remain in place. This is a long-term closure for the duration of the project. Expected completion date, April, 2024.
Route 20 (Scottsville Road) – Bridge superstructure repairs/replacement. Expect temporary traffic signal with new traffic pattern at Route 708 (Red Hill Road). Route 708 will narrow to one lane for construction on the bridge over the North Fork Hardware River in the southbound lanes, beginning Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. Project completion date, Dec. 2024.
Can’t wait for them to fix all of these uniformly badly paved roads.
You remember the Old Dominion proposed neighborhood, right?
Imagine if the sidewalks were continuous to downtown Crozet, and if there was a protected bike lane along 240.?While I’m dreaming, review the planning commission information below.
Notably, as indicated on the Planning Staff Report Summary from 4 May 2022, there will be an internal sidewalk network as well as connectivity to 240’s sidewalks, and dedicated funds?to “help mitigate impacts of the development on schools and transportation” in addition to “proffers 20 Affordable Dwelling Units within the development exceeding the required 15% rate.”
(I’m still trying to find out the status of the pedestrian improvements at Starr Hill).
LEAD REVIEWER: Kevin McCollum, [email protected] PROJECT: SDP202300067 Old Dominion Village MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT: White Hall TAX MAP/PARCEL: 05600-00-00-067B0 and 05600-00-00-074A0 LOCATION: 1263 Parkview Dr, Crozet, VA 22932 PROPOSAL: Request for initial site plan approval containing 110 total new lots, including 16 single-family detached lots and 94 attached single-family lots (townhouses) on 23.72 acres for a gross density of 4.64 units/acre. The development will be served by new internal public roads and public water and sewer utilities. 6.29 acres of open space is proposed within the development. An existing veterinary clinic within the site will be retained on a 0.91 acre commercial parcel within the overall development. Project is subject to the Code of Development and proffers of ZMA202000005.
ZONING: NMD Neighborhood Model District – residential (3 – 34 units/acre) mixed with commercial, service and industrial uses
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN: Neighborhood Density Residential – residential 3-6 units/acre; supporting uses such as religious assembly, schools, childcare, institutional, commercial/retail, and other small-scale non-residential uses; Middle Density Residential – residential 6 – 12 units/acre (up to 18 units/acre considered with additional affordable housing units and/or small-scale housing types); supporting uses such as religious assembly, schools, childcare, institutional, commercial/retail, and other small-scale non-residential uses; Green Systems – sensitive environmental features including stream buffers, floodplains, and steep slopes; privately-owned open space; natural areas in the Crozet Master Plan. Rural Area – preserve and protect agricultural, forestal, open space, and natural, historic and scenic resources; residential (0.5 unit/ acre in development lots).
If you’re not subscribing to Sean Tubbs’ Charlottesville Community Engagement, you’re not as informed as you could be. 🙂 If you’re not paying for a subscription, please consider doing so. Please, spend a few minutes reading and supporting his work — this stuff matters.
There is so much happening during the week of 4 December 2023 in Albemarle County governance.
I’ll pay for the subscription for the first person to email me asking for one. Just ask.
The Albemarle Board of Equalization will meet at 9 a.m. (meeting info)
The Albemarle Economic Development Authority will hold a special virtual meeting at 1 p.m. to prepare for a future joint meeting with the Albemarle Board of Supervisors. There will also be a performance agreement for AgroSpheres. (agenda)
The Albemarle Broadband Authority will meet at 5 p.m. in Room 241 of the county’s office building at 401 McIntire Road. (meeting info) (agenda)
As ever, thanks to Crozet Gazette for the recording. If you can find the time to watch the meeting, I think it’s an instructive background into growth in Albemarle and Crozet going forward. Start or continue your learning about Albemarle’s Comprehensive Plan at Engage Albemarle.
I missed the meeting, and it looks like it was sparsely-attended, despite transportation and infrastructure being such important parts of our community conversation.
A few things jumped out as I watched the meeting
12:07 multi modal planning approach; focusing growth within development areas
15:50 centers and destinations of activity – Crozet is a bit ahead of other development areas
16:55 jobs & people densities — this is really interesting
21 modes
25:00 — urban design conversation, context, vocabulary are too complicated for an an average citizen to understand? Planning and development are meaty topics that affect us all, and the November CCAC meeting is an example of why it’s important to consistently pay attention to local government.
45:00 — AC44 future land use and planning designations; this is important (and technical) stuff that affects how we live and grow. There are 24 land use designations (confusing) across 5 master plans.
January’s meeting will be about the Crozet Square!
They want to have to offer 8 fewer parking spaces than code requires; Staff advise approval
AC44 Phase 2: Draft Goals and Objectives (this is important stuff; find a few minutes to at least skim it, and maybe then, provide feedback to the County with your thoughts)
I-64 Exit 107 Park and Ride – advertising date: Fall 2024
Rte. 680 Browns Gap Turnpike Bridge Replacement over Lickinghole Creek – advertising date: June 2025
Route 240/250 Roundabout — this is part of a bundle of projects. Status: Scoping & preliminary engineering underway. Survey complete. Public Hearings complete. Comments are still being accepted through October 2nd
.240 at Music City Today and Starr Hill Brewery – Pedestrian Crossing — Recommendation: Plans being updated. (huh?!) — I have an email in to VDOT asking about this.
Or … 2023’s election season in Albemarle County is finally over.
As the dust settles, we are still a great place to live. Close to UVA, Blue Ridge Parkway, Skyline Drive, good schools (with many of the challenges faced around the country), and genuinely a great place to live.
This was the most divisive, and certainly most expensive, local election I remember.
I was talking to a new-to-Crozet friend this week, and he asked for my seasoned perspective on the Crozet elections. Here we go.
is offensive, shameful, disgusting. Give each candidate $25K, and put the rest to the Food Bank or some other worthy charity that helps people.
For Board of Supervisors between Brad Rykal and Ann Mallek
I’m glad Brad ran; contested elections are better for everyone, and I hope he continues to be involved beyond the election.
It looks like Brad’s strategy of focusing almost exclusively on growth area matters that directly affect the “urban” area of Crozet almost worked.
Crozet residents are more than the “town” of Crozet.
If “Crozet” wants to have autonomy, Crozet needs to become a town. Simple. (related stories from 2021 in January, and August; there are a lot more if you want to search the blog). Crozet is part of the White Hall district, and further, a part of Albemarle County.
If we want more businesses and services, we need more people (have you seen the complaints on godforaken-Nextdoor about the lack of restaurants and other stuff?)
I find it instructive and interesting that the “urban” areas went so heavily for Brad; I see that as a meaningful indication that Crozet’s townification deserves a serious consideration.
Crozet has gotten a lot of money over the years – Library, Streetscape, Jarmans, Old Trail playground, and we need more — there is no argument here. I’d argue we need protected bike lanes and sidewalks. Build it and they will use it.
One request to fellow Crozetians — go to meetings other than CCAC. CCAC is interesting, yet the meetings that matter are the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors — those votes count.
And go consistently, not just when you see that thing coming that will affect your backyard — go now. And next month, and then next. Be consistent in your attendance and involvement. Being a citizen takes effort and sacrifice.
Short of Crozet getting a benevolent dictator, we’re going to have to work together to continue to build a great Crozet, and we need to look beyond our backyards and look at these changes as generational changes.
I thought I was making up the word “townify” — I was wrong; it was first used in 1798!
town·?i·?fy ?tau?n??f? -ed/-ing/-es 1 : to cause to become urban a pleasant little village rapidly being townified 2 : to stamp with the characteristics of the town or city or of urban life the long townified dress she’d put on— Christopher Isherwood
Disclosures, for what it’s worth — I gave money to no candidates, had coffee with Brad several times, and genuinely like him, and have known Ann for many years.
It’s going to take more than a sign to make things happen; and what’s wrong with that intersection?
I’m choosing to stop looking at Mechums River, as otherwise I’ll be in the voting history rabbit hole for too long, and then I might spend a lot more time looking at who’s giving how much to whom. And marvel at how absolutely insane it is that a local school board race is going to cost about a quarter of a million dollars.
