Crozet is growing. There are now nearly 10K people within 3 miles of Downtown Crozet.
Ongoing series, of undetermined length, in which I am putting together information that will hopefully serve to inform, pique curiosity, and spur Crozetians to ask questions, and get informed and involved … for things that affect everyone’s backyards, not just their own.
Earlier this month (November 2016) county staff unrolled a large map on a table in the Crozet Library and invited members of the committee to inspect it.
“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”
Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.
“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”
Demographers at the University of Virginia are forecasting a sharp increase in Albemarle’s population by the year 2045, but a smaller rise for the city of Charlottesville.
Lombard said whether projections meet reality will depend on land use decisions made by Virginia localities.
The center’s data projects Albemarle County growing to a population of 118,828 in 2025, 134,104 in 2035 and 148,337 in 2045. The center’s population estimate for 2016 is 105,715, an increase of 6,745 people since the 2010 Census.
“The county is working diligently on implementing the Comprehensive Plan vision, which anticipated this kind of growth,” said Andrew Gast-Bray, the county’s community development director. In 1980, the Board of Supervisors designated five percent of the county’s land for development and restricted growth in the remaining 95 percent.
- Growing Crozet Thoughtfully & Sustainably – September 2017
- Crozet is Going to Grow – And We Can’t Stop It – April 2010
- Weldon Cooper Center population growth
- Crozet Traffic (Letter from a Reader)
PDFs showing Crozet population growth
- Crozet – 3 5 10 demo Crozet designated growth area
- Crozet – 3 5 10 demographic growth
- Enrollment-Growth-and-Demographics-Changes-Version-3 – From Albemarle County Schools
Related to the first two pdfs above
Their projections can be misleading. In general an annualized rate of 2.7% is fairly aggressive on a macro level, but low considering all the ongoing activity. To add 3-4K residents, that’s about 8-10% annual growth, which would be exceptional. The designated growth area historically has grown 4.0% since 2010, so I think a defensible aggressive projection would be somewhere between 4.0 and 8%. A growing job base in Crozet would make that aggressive projection much more realistic. I thought the median age difference between the general 5 mile radius (42.3 years) and designated growth area (39 years) was pretty interesting.
NB: We need an accurate census
- The Beginning – A Conversation with a friend over coffee
- Prologue – Support local journalists & journalism
- How Much Money for Infrastructure Has Crozet Gotten?
- Crozet Population Numbers Keep Growing
- Crozet Acronyms – What do They Mean?
- Crozet Water Supply
- Notes from a Crozet Coffee Conversation
- Ongoing Crozet Projects of Note
- Getting Involved in Crozet – Where to Start?
- … I don’t yet know …