2014 Mid-Year Crozet Real Estate Market Update – Some Numbers

In Crozet, real estate by Jim1 Comment

For those who don’t know, I’m a real estate agent. I live in Crozet. I study the market and make a living representing buyers and sellers in Crozet the Charlottesville area. If you’re interested in a broader look at the Charlottesville area real estate market, I wrote a report on my Charlottesville real estate blog.

Comparing the first half of this year with the first half of last year in Crozet’s real estate market …

– Contracts in Crozet are down 8%.

– Prices are up … about 8%

– Home sales (closings) are down 23%

– New listings are down 10%

– New construction remains (and will for at least a decade, I’d wager) a major factor in the Crozet market.

– If you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – and that might mean underpricing the competition if you’re in a competitive segment.

– If you’re thinking about buying, do your due diligence and buy well – this sounds like trite advice, but work your way through what life will be every day of the week at that house, not just on the one day you visit.

– Even though the data and analysis here are focused on Crozet, your micro market – Western Ridge, Old Trail (the town home market here is further segmented even), Parkside Village, Laurel Hills, etc … get competent representation.

  Crozet Real estate market update - 2nd Quarter 2014

2014 has proven to be an interesting year.

Two points as you read through this –

1 – new construction in the MLS is a challenging thing. There are different categories: Detached, Attached and Condos (which we don’t have in Crozet) and Proposed Detached, Attached and condos. It’s easy to put a “proposed” listing in and that number isn’t entirely representative of the market; “proposed” listings are one of the reasons I pull numbers by hand rather than relying on the top-level reports, some of which include “proposed” listings … and “proposed” listings weren’t added to the MLS as a category until a few years ago.

For example, when looking at the top-level numbers (including new construction) for single family homes, it appears that there are about 8 months of inventory, yet when you exclude single family, that number is closer to 6 – a healthy, balanced market. (PDFs of most of the data are here)

With that convoluted explanation …

2 – For the purposes of this story, “Crozet” = Crozet Elementary + Brownsville Elementary districts.

Fewer listings could be a good thing as that tends to keep competition healthier. Generally though, we’re still in a buyer’s market.

213 – the number of new listings this year in Crozet (excluding new construction proposed listings) versus 235 last year from 1 January to 30 June.(10% decline)

245 – the number of new listings (including new construction proposed listings) – versus 292 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (16% decline)

52 (24% of the new listings in Crozet) – just in Old Trail, (excluding new) – versus 50 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

72 (29% of the new listings) – just in Old Trail and including new construction – versus 80 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

—

148 – number of contracts written so far this year – versus 161 last year from 1 January to 30 June. (8% fewer this year)

44 (30% of the total contracts) – number of contracts in Old Trail versus 42 last year from 1 January to 30 June.

—

102 – Closed sales this year versus 133 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 23% decline. (weather related, perhaps?)

27 (27%) – Closed sales in Old Trail versus 38 last year from 1 January to 30 June- a 29% decline.


Right now – 12 July around 2:30pm, there are 81 homes under contract in Crozet – 47 are marked as being new construction.

As I wrote in my monthly note:

If you’re looking to make a decision, analyze your micro market. For example, the $475K – $600K single family detached market in the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary districts: There are 64 such homes under contract in Albemarle County; 38 (59%) are new construction. In Crozet, there are 22 homes in that price range under contract; 18 (82%!) are new construction.

If you’re trying to sell a home in Crozet in that price point, your primary competition is new construction and you need to prepare and price with this in mind. In contrast, in Baker Butler and Hollymead Elementary school districts (29 North), there are 46 single family homes under contract and four in the $475K – $600K range and all are resales. Micro markets are far more relevant than county-state-national market data (or zestimates).

Takeaways:

– If your house didn’t sell this year, you’re not alone; if you’re thinking about selling, price accordingly – this may be hard as nationwide, between 20-30% of homeowners are still underwater or near-underwater. (localized data for underwater homes is challenging to find)

– If you are buying this year, make sure you do your due diligence (and preferably hire a knowledgeable buyers’ agent).

– Why is the Crozet market slow? I’m not sure yet; I’ll let you know in 18 months. I know this isn’t the analysis you’re looking for but my initial thoughts are that there are still underwater sellers who aren’t yet able to sell, buyers who are able to buy but don’t yet have full confidence in employment or the market and are still mistrustful of the market and we don’t yet have a big enough employer in Crozet to supply the jobs we need. That said, a lot of people are buying and selling, so while the Crozet market isn’t as robust as the Charlottesville City market, our market remains fairly strong.

Questions?

I’m always happy to answer them.

Crozet Neighborhood Assessments – 2014

In Crozet, real estate by Jim6 Comments

Note: If you find errors, please please please let me know.

Albemarle County real estate assessments are out … did yours go up? Go down? Questions about your assessment? Ask me … quickly (434-242-7140. I’m a real estate agent by the way). The deadline for challenging your assessment is this Friday, 28 February. The 2014 Real Estate Assessment Form can be downloaded at Albemarle County’s site.

I chose nine Crozet neighborhoods as a sample. I wanted to choose Laurel Hills but because some of those have been renovated over the years, I didn’t think they would provide the relative homogeneity that I was looking for. If it wasn’t so darn labor- and time-intensive I would have done more neighborhoods.

What do real estate assessments mean?

5 Reasons why real estate assessments matter: (more thoughts on the value of assessments)

1) The County bases their budget on property tax revenue.
?2) The assessed value is the value upon which property owners pay taxes. These values are a backward-looking assessment.
?3) Buyers look at assessed values as a measure of market value … but really, it’s a point in the equation, but are neither a definitive point nor a necessarily accurate one.
?4) Also – “Virginia, unlike some other states, by Statute requires localities to assess property at 100% of fair market value, based on an objective analysis of the property’s fair market value…”
?5) Sellers look at assessed values and wonder if buyers will think that the assessment means their home is worth X (it doesn’t).

From my professional capacity, I place little to no value in real estate assessments when seeking market value. When I see a property marketed as “below assessed value” or “new assessed value is $10k higher!” I think only that that means a property’s real estate tax bill will be higher or lower.

Thoughts on some of the Crozet neighborhoods’ assessed values:

– Old Trail was all over the board – from 44% decrease to nearly 400% increase. I removed these outliers from the equations. Assessed values ranged from $175k to over a million dollars.

– Parkside Village was up about 15%. Despite its being one of the best located neighborhoods in Crozet, some of the houses increased in assessed value by 20%. Reasonable?

– Highlands is the only neighborhood that declined in assessed value. An aging housing stock is likely to blame.

– Western Ridge (the second largest neighborhood behind Old Trail) – ranged from -4.17% to +13.44% – is essentially flat.

Note on my math – – I pulled the crazy outliers – -50% and +400% for example – and then averaged the delta column. I thought about doing a weighted average but went with this method. See the link above, please check my math and let me know what’s better and where I screwed up. 🙂

Where’s the New Housing Inventory in Crozet?

In Crozet, real estate by JimLeave a Comment

Disclosure: I’m a real estate agent. I occasionally write about the Crozet real estate market.

I’ve been looking at the data and am getting more and more curious … where are the new listings that I (and other professionals) thought would be coming on the market in Crozet? (There’s more insight in my subscription-only monthly note)

Some of the questions this data raises:

– How will this affect new construction? (probably quite well – fewer good homes with which they’re competing may mean more sales and higher prices)

– How might this affect buyers? More competition for good houses and less to choose from may 1) discourage buyers 2) keep potential buyers renting 3) drive up prices

– How might this affect sellers? They might be able to push the asking price a little bit. Or, they might price it a bit under where they might be able to price it in order to better ensure a reasonably quick contract

– How might this affect growth in Crozet? We have quite a few new homes yet to be built … will they continue at the same pace?

– Is it too early to draw any kind of reasonable conclusions? Yes. Absolutely. For all the years I’ve been writing about and practicing real estate, I’ve said that I’ll let you know in 18 months what the market did today.

– What if I have more questions about the Crozet real estate market? Ask me anytime. Here in the comments or email or call me anytime.

The short story is that there’s always more to the story than top-level data suggests. This post is just some brief insight into what’s happening in the Crozet real estate market. For broader insight, I wrote today about the Charlottesville/Central Virginia market.

When Do Homes Come on the Market in Crozet?

In Crozet, Market Data, real estate by Jim1 Comment

Unlike the greater Charlottesville MSA market where the trend lines are fairly consistent, the Crozet real estate market is more of a fits-and-starts market. The Crozet real estate market cycle can be described succinctly: (“Crozet” defined for these purposes as “Brownsville & Crozet Elementary Schools) …

Crozet Real Estate Market – Conflicting Numbers, Fast Contracts, Not enough Inventory

In Crozet, real estate by Jim5 Comments

If you were to look at just the data, you’d think the Crozet real estate market is worse this year than last. Anecdotally and practically though, you’d be wrong. (talk to anyone currently looking for a home in Crozet between $300k and $500k) Or ask me.

In the first four and a half months of 2012, 166 homes came on the market in Crozet. This year, 177 came on the market. (inventory is up)

Last year, 83 homes went under contract. This year, 94 went under contract. (comparing 1/1/12-4/22/12 to this year, the numbers are 89 to 99, respectively) (More homes are selling)

Last year, 54 homes sold. This year, that number is 49. (Let’s call that a push)

But … Of the 99 homes that have gone under contract this year … 44 had days on market of less than 7! 54 had days on market of less than 30. 37 had days on market of less than 3.

So. What in the world do those numbers mean? They’re a perfect representation of how numbers can be deceiving.

In a nutshell – here’s what I’m seeing in the Crozet real estate market right now:

– Great homes are selling fast.

– There aren’t enough quality homes on the market to satisfy the demand of buyers.

– There’s a pile of new construction coming to Crozet – Foothill Crossing, Wickham Pond, Old Trail, Grayrock North (West), Westlake (behind Westhall), Foxchase Landing … and a lot of my clients are shunning said new construction for existing homes because they want something less generic. (a lot are choosing new, but I’m seeing a shift I haven’t previously seen)

– If you’re thinking about selling your home in Crozet, now would be a good time to do so. If you’ve been underwater, you might not be. Seriously.

– If you’re thinking about buying a home in Crozet, be prepared for quality inventory to move. Fast.

– We’re nearing the end of the traditional peak time for new homes to come on the market; most buyers in our area tend to want to either close around the end of the school year or the start of the school year …

I’m embedding some market summary reports below. Please do let me know what questions you have … also keep in mind that even though I’m writing about the Crozet real estate market, individual neighborhood trends are different – both different scales (Old Trail vs everything else) and quality.

Disclosure: I’m a real estate agent. This is a post to inform readers about the state of the Crozet real estate market. It’s not specifically written in order to advertise or solicit business, but I certainly would not dissuade potential buyers, sellers, curious readers from contacting me with questions or if they are seeking buyer or seller representation.

Thinking about Crozet Schools

In Crozet, real estate, Schools by Jim2 Comments

As is often the case, I started a conversation on the RealCrozetVA facebook page and the conversation turned out so well I thought I’d share it here. As always, a huge thanks to the commenters there. Curious: what is WAHS doing to compete with the …